ON THE OTHER MOST EXCITING TECH EVENT IN 2007

MORE THE MERRIER

Much has been made in technology circles about the two big operating system upgrades due early next year for Microsoft with Vista and Apple with Leopard.

While those are important, and I look forward to new computers and laptops with these new operating systems, I'm really looking forward more to a different type of upgrade cycle for computers, especially laptops, PDAs and cellphones/mobiles next year.

And that's to seeing new, higher speed wireless data networks (aka WWAN or wireless wide area networks) being rolled out across by the U.S. the cellular carriers.  The incumbent leaders in this space today are Verizon Wireless with it's EVDO network and Sprint, which has just started to roll out it's next generation EVDO Rev B wireless data networks in the U.S.  Longer term, it also plans to roll out a WiMax-based wireless data network.

As I've noted in previous posts, all these networks could stand improvement.  Both these networks offer wireless speeds on the go on the order of over 400 kbps, equivalent to basic cable modems and DSL speeds on the wired side. 

The pricing for these services have been more opportunistic with "all you can eat" plans running at $40/ month to as high as $80/month to customers that don't subscribe to other services from the carrier.  In addition, these subscriptions have not been sharable unless the user went with a PC card modem that could be switched from one laptop to another. 

Increasingly PC Windows laptops have been rolling out with integrated modems that allow WWAN subscriptions, but these have not been sharable.  So for instance, if I had two notebooks with integrated WWAN modems, I couldn't share one subscription with those two laptops even if I were only permitted to log on with any one laptop at a given time.  The same goes with multiple cell phones and PDAs that increasingly come with integrated WWAN modems. 

Those multiple subscriptions can add up pretty quick.

It'd be as if AOL in the old days required you to have a separate dial-up account for each PC in your house, even if you were only online with one PC at a time. 

Thankfully, due to competition in the wired online area, companies like AOL offered up to 5 or 7 account names on the same account as long as two account names weren't logged on at the same time.

We're long over-due for competition in the broadband wireless market, and 2007 is a potentially a big year for that. 

Both Cingular/AT&T and T-Mobile have been at a disadvantage to date with their lower speed EDGE networks that typically have provided speeds of up to 150 kbps, or a little over three times the old-fashioned dial-up access we used to get via wired connections on AOL.

But both these carriers are poised to roll out higher speed wireless data networks next year, with something called HSDPA.  Cingular has already started this roll-out in some markets this year.

The base versions of these networks make them competitive with the EVDO offerings from the incumbent Verizon Wireless and Sprint.

What's exciting is that the HSPDA technology is also poised to see much higher speeds as early as next year.  As this Engadget story notes:

"There's always thrilling news coming from ITU Telecom World in Hong Kong for those residing overseas, but this time it's the Americans rejoicing.

A Qualcomm official has stated that USA's own Cingular Wireless "is set to launch" a 7.2Mbps HSDPA service this coming January (at the earliest). While we're not sure if that figure is theoretical or otherwise, nor do we know its complementary upload speed, we've found that the service will hit speed-hungry laptops equipped with PCMCIA slots real soon.

While upping the speeds of HSDPA services seems to be all the rage these days, we're glad to see such a substantial jump happening right here. Notably, Cingular probably won't be alone in such launches come 2007..."

And on a related note, despite all the exciting things potentially on tap from Apple for next year (one or two new "iPhones", an ultra-notebook, a tablet device of some sort, and iTV), there is one area that Apple is behind Windows laptops. 

And that's in the area of integrated WWAN solutions for Macbooks and Macbook Pros.  Sure, we can get PC Expresscard EVDO modems (FINALLY) for Macbook Pros that work on Verizon Wireless, but that's been possible on Windows notebooks for over two years.

If as rumored (via Kevin Rose and Crunchgear), Apple is coming with innovative designs for it's iPhones with not one but two or more cell phone modems for it's iPhone, that would work with Cingular/T-Mobile or potentially Verizon's networks, it's not unreasonable to expect either catch-up or leap-frog innovation in the area of integrated WWAN solution for Apple notebooks.

Thought I'd ask for my most wanted feature on Apple products next year.

Aside from Apple though, 2007 promises to be a good year for hopefully more competitive broadband wireless offerings for laptops and mobiles. 

Can barely wait.

Comments

[ap]

Michael,
Nice post. We definitely need more competition in this arena to upgrade quality and bring prices down.

WiMAX (as has been frequently mentioned) could also level the playing field, a plus for companies like Skype. Bringing free wireless Internet access, provided by cities and municipalities, as is already being done in San Francisco and other cities, would definitely be a plus for consumers, as myriads of companies would be able to compete for communications services--it would be analogous to the breakup of AT&T in 1984. I wouldn't mind even listening or watching a commercial or two before making a call if it meant cheap (or even free) access.

[Salman FF]

Can you (or someone) please explain to me why the net neutrality debate became such a big issue, given the kind of competition we should hopefully be getting over the next few years in this space. If the telcos or cable providers were to do a fraction of the things that net neutrality supporters fear, wouldn’t they just lose their customers to the competition?