ON MORE APPLE JUICE IN 2007

ANTICIPATION

(Update:  Tristan Louis has a good post providing context around Apple's potential move.)

If ThinkSecret has it right, Apple's long-expected entry into the mobile phone market next year won't be an MVNO category of service, as many had expected.  The service reports:

Apple and Cingular have signed an agreement that will make the US' largest cell phone provider the exclusive carrier of Apple's forthcoming phone, sources report. Apple's iPhone remains on track for an early 2007 release.

As previously reported, Apple's phone will feature a candy-bar design with a 2.2-inch display and 3 megapixel camera. Robust iTunes and iSync support will also be delivered with the phone.

Apple's exclusive contract with Cingular is said to be good for the first six months, sources report, meaning other providers will be able to sell the phone in the second-half of 2007."

On one level it's not surprising that Apple may partner with incumbent wireless carriers rather than "white-label" Sprint's network to offer their own branded service. 

That strategy has not worked well as well to date, as noted in an earlier post. 

Part of the reason may be Apple's own estimates of the anticipated demand.  As the ThinkSecret report highlights:

"...insiders say Apple is internally estimating that shipments of the iPhone will top a staggering 25 million in 2007 alone.  Motorola's RAZR, by contrast, has sold more than 50 million units since its launch in late 2004."

What we don't know of course, are the financial terms of the agreement, the split between Apple and the carriers, as well as how Apple will distinguish it's offering from the myriad choices available, on the hardware, software, services and pricing fronts.

So far, there isn't anything dramatically new and different, other than it being an Apple phone of course.

Here's hoping ThinkSecret missed some more juice. 

To paraphrase Jack Nicholson from "A Few Good Men," Apple,

Please tell us you've got something more.
Please tell us there's an ace up your sleeve.
Please tell us  that ThinkSecret hasn't pinned our hopes to a six-month exclusive distribution deal with Cingular.

Otherwise, all we've got to look forward to on the wireless front in 2007, is waiting for startups like Jajah and Rebtel to do to the wireless carriers what Vonage and Skype started to do the the wireline carriers half a decade ago. 

Lower cost calls are always welcome, but we want more...for less.

Comments

[Yaser Anwar]

Excellent & a much awaited move by Apple!

In one fell swoop Apple's movie deal steal market share and millions of dollars from Netflix, Blockbuster Video, and dozens of other major DVD retailers. I see a similar thing happening when it releases the iPhone.

The iPod craze has already proven itself to be a Trojan horse that Apple is using to cross-sell its other products—namely its computers.

In fact, almost every person that has an iPod now wants an Apple computer (I had the urge & this summer I finally got a Mac). So by selling millions of iPods, Apple has created millions of fans who want to upgrade to the "coolest" computer on the planet & soon other products such iTV & iPhone.

After all, carrying just a cell phone that plays songs, movies and games beats having to drag along a phone and an iPod.

I also wanted to give your readers the 'Top 5 Institutional Shareholders of Apple' (As of August 30)

Fidelity Management & Research- 57 mil
Alliance Bernstein- 50 mil
Barclays Global Investors- 34 mil
State Street Global Advisors- 22 mil
Vanguard- 21.5 mil

[Yaser Anwar]

Unofficial iPhone commercial by award winning filmmaker Christopher DeSantis

http://video.google.ca/videoplay?docid=-3168733759916419298&q=Apple

[Philip Cunningham]

Don't worry Michael, the Cingular deal is a tactical deal for the launch.

I'd guess what Apple wants is to be the gatekeeper for WHERE your call goes. The iTV box is part of the phone strategy. The name hasn't been "offically" launched because that would blow the cover. If it can, the phone talks to the iTV box and then on via VOIP if possible, otherwise out to Cingular or whoever. Apple can sell the phone as it has an immediate use and can use the subscriber bulk to do better deals with other carriers. Apple sits right in the middle of the home, concentrating and switching sound, video and talk.