*michael parekh on IT*: ON CUTTING ORIGAMI A BREAK

"GIVE UMPC A CHANCE..."

Om Malik has an article critical of Microsoft's UMPC (aka Origami, or Ultra-Mobile PC) in the latest Business 2.0.

Having gone out on a limb yesterday with a post titled "Origami, Microsoft's next big platform", I feel compelled to respond to several points made in the article, both by him, and the people he quotes.

Again, for those who didn't see my earlier post, my position on the Origami can be summed up as follows:

1. That Origami can potentially be Microsoft's next big platform over the next five years, but not necessarily over the next two years. The early versions should be treated as beta products, much as we do most web services from Google and/or Yahoo!

2. That Origami is a PLATFORM, and not a particular PRODUCT from Microsoft. It's Microsoft's hardware platforms that enable specific products around the platform by third parties, much like PC makers have created PCs around Microsoft's DOS and Windows platforms for the last quarter of a century.

So, back to rebutting Om's article.

1. "ORIGAMI IS CHUNKY": To start off, his article is titled "Origami is paper-thin", likely a clever and tongue-in-cheek reference that the first versions of the product out soon from folks like Samsung, Asus and others are thicker than one would like.

And they are a bit chunky, as Origami project head at Microsoft Otto Berkes himself admits in the video put out by Robert Scoble a few days ago.

As he explains in the video, the goal is to get to a "paper-thin" version over a period of time. He shows a prototype of what that might look like, and points out that it's the same prototype that Bill Gates showed at a conference a few months ago (pictured here).

Importantly, he also emphasizes that given current technology curves, that much thinner target model is eminently doable over the next few years.

2. "ORIGAMI IS NOT AN iPOD OR PSP KILLER": Next, Om says,

" But analysts were quick to point out that Origami's lack of focus made it an implausible competitor to Apple's iPod or Sony's (Research) PlayStation Portable..."

""This is yet another failed attempt to jam everything into one device," says Pip Coburn, technology strategist with Coburn Ventures, a New York-based investment advisory firm. "The way I see it, they don't really know what they want it to be..."

"Coburn believes Microsoft needs to simplify Origami devices and bring more focus to their form and function, just as they did with the XBox 360 game console. "It would be great if they did a PlayStation Portable competitor," says Coburn."

And Om himself makes a related point in his sub-headline to the article:

"As Microsoft's new handheld unfolds, analysts say it's too pricey and unfocused"

Again, the Origami is no less unfocused than the PC platform, and the notebook/laptop platforms from Microsoft or Apple for that matter. It's VIRTUE is that it IS a platoform for General-Purpose devices. Comparing them to specific products is like comparing apples to oranges (no pun intended).

The analysts Om quotes should read the Origami press releases again.

Origami is not a product like the XBox.

It's a platform that will evolve over time. In theory, any number of consumer electronic and/or PC companies could come up with a version of Origami that stresses a specific market opportunity, like games, music, internet telephony etc.

This is a touch-driven, pen-enabled PC platform that runs today's standards Windows XP (Tablet Edition) and tomorrow's Vista.

Absorb that. And chill on the iPod/PSP/XBox comparisons already.

These folks, who are "Analysts", and are supposed to help clarify and explain things to mainstream audiences, not confuse them with their own knee-jerk value judgments that don't look at the whole picture.

3. "NO BUILT-IN WIRELESS BROADBAND": Om quotes another analyst,

"Ashok Kumar, an analyst with brokerage firm Raymond James, says that the new devices need to have cellular connectivity, not just Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. Carriers like Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel (Research), and Cingular already subsidize expensive smartphones in the hopes of getting customers to sign up for pricey data plans."

I agree with Ashok, that broadband wireless options are needed. Again, Otto Berkes made clear in the video that there are Origami partners that plan to offer versions with those options.

Remember, this a modified version of the base Windows platform. So anything a PC and/or a laptop can have as accessories, can presumably be built-in to future versions of the Origami. The first versions will have Wi-fi and bluetooth, along with USB and Ethernet connections.

Again, this is not a show-stopper, and we'll have to be patient.

4. "INSUFFICIENT BATTERY POWER": Origami devices will initially have notebook like battery power, about 2-3 hours, rather than PDA like battery power that can run all day without a boost.

Again, I agree that more battery life would be good, but the trade-off comes in chunkier larger batteries, that I'm sure will be offered as options on many of the devices.

A silver lining here may be more competitive processors that are coming like the C-7 processor from Via that a couple of the initial Origami hardware partners are going to be using their devices. This processor apparently is more power-efficient than the Intel processors used in most Origami devices, and is compatible with the x86 architecture of the Windows platform.

In general, we will see better, smarter battery optimizing devices down the road, as technology evolves, but this point will remain an issue, just as it does for notebooks today.

5. "PRICE TOO HIGH": Again, some quotes from Om's article,

"At $999, consumers are not going to bite," says (Ashok) Kumar..."

"Cynthia Brumfield, president of Emerging Media Dynamics, a consulting group, agrees that the UMPC is too expensive for consumers..."

"If the price stays at the $600 to $1,000 range, Microsoft will have a tough time distinguishing [Origami] from low-end laptops or notebooks," says Brumfield."

If one truly absorbs that Origami is a full-fledged Windows computer, that can compete with a desktop and/or a laptop computer, then paying something in the $500 to a $1000, is more understandable.

I totally get the point made by the analysts, that most people will find it difficult to spring for BOTH a laptop and an UMPC. True that.

Again, the first versions will be for early adopters, and as price points come down the technology cost curves, we'll likely see lower priced options.

In general, I don't think price is the true long-term issue. If people truly find this new CLASS of product useful for the on-the-go computing that Microsoft and their partners envision, then price takes care of itself.

There's not question though that Origami is going to be cannibalistic in some cases with other Microsoft-based products like Pocket PCs on one end and basic laptops/tablet PCs on the other. It's just another option to be considered within that mix.

6. "NOT ENOUGH PC PARTNERS": Om makes a valid point,

"Tellingly, Microsoft has yet to sign up any major U.S. PC makers for Origami. Samsung, the South Korean consumer electronics maker, and Asustek, a Taiwanese computer maker, are the only manufacturers showing off devices at CeBit."

Yes, the Dells, Gateways, Lenovos of the world are missing in the original Origami line-up. But given that giants like Samsung and Asus are in the initial mix, other traditional PC vendors may not be far behind.

Again, one has to keep the potential cannibalistic aspect of this product in mind.

Also, remember that not all the PC vendors embraced the Tablet PC and Pocket PC platforms initially, but have slowly joined the party. It looks like we have a half a dozen folks in the initial line-up, with more potentially to come.

7. "A HANDHELD THAT NEEDS A GRIP": That's the clever sub-title that Om uses in the article, and it refers, I believe both to the initial designs of the Origami units, and the general comparison of "stodgy" Microsoft to "hip" Apple. Again, from Om's piece, quoting Cynthia Brumfield:

"Microsoft is just not....cool."

True that too, especially when compared to Apple's iPod.

But again, this is a platform that has both consumer and enterprise applications. Hopefully we'll see one or more hardware partners come up with Origami implementations that hit more of the hip/cool buttons in the coming months.

And I know, it's been uninspiring given that five years after the first iPod, not one of the generic MP3 players have hit the "cool" mark.

But again, those weren't platforms, but were simply a line of product plays, without a unified array of software APIs into a hardware platform.

And it's not unreasonable to think that we may get a reasonable Origami design or two from possibly dozens of hardware companies over the next five years.

To look at the previous notebook/laptop platform from Microsoft, one only has to think of the Thinkpad from IBM, or some of the early laptop designs from HP, or Sony's Vaio line of notebooks as a recent case in point.

There were and are more than a few products on that platform that thrilled both consumer and business users. "Double True", no?

So, I'll risk on being a bit more optimistic. And get on board early on the Origami train.

UPDATE:

1. Dave Caolo of TUAW (the unofficial Apple weblog), has a hilarious, tongue-in-cheek post (via memeorandum) comparing the UMPC to Apple's Newton PDA of technology lore. A must read for tech geeks with a sense of humor, and a thick skin if you're a diehard Microsoftie.

As a previous owner of multiple Newtons, I agree with his underlying point that the Newton was years ahead of it's time. And again, as it often is with technology, the basic dream and vision can take a long time to be fulfilled. And there'll be many companies that'll pick up the gauntlet at various times.

But we're almost, barely, pretty close to the real thing with the UMPC...only a few more years...fingers crossed.

2. What is New blog has an interesting post on what software application companies need to do to optimize their Windows programs for the UMPC...geeky, but interesting.

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michael parekh on IT

Ruminations on the Internet, Technology, and Interesting Trends around the globe.

Friday, March 10, 2006

ON CUTTING ORIGAMI A BREAK

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