ON IMPLICATIONS OF GOOGLE PACK AND VIDEO

MORE TEA LEAVES

(UPDATE:  Search Engine Blog has an update here on Google Video)

Some random thoughts going through my head as I reviewed the coverage post Larry Page's much-anticipated keynote at the International CES in Vegas (via Endgadget), where as expected, he unveiled a new, improved Google Video, and a software delivery system called Google Pack (great summary of keynote with post-interviews by John Battelle of course):

1. Why can't I find a clip of his keynote on Google Video hours after the event?
2. As importantly, why can't I find and/or buy a clip of Robin Williams with him on stage?  I'd pay good money (maybe even much more than the usual $1.99) to see that again.  By all accounts, Larry's content and Robin's mad-cap humor made for the best "keynote" at CES so far.
3. Why don't more keynoters at conferences take questions from the audience? Wait, I already know the answer to that.
4. When has a keynoter at CES talked about the utter frustration of dealing with a zillion power adapters from every type of Consumer Electronics vendor, and the really STUPID lack of standards in this area (see great picture from Engadget below)?
5. What do these announcements really show about Google's long-term plans and intentions?

The last one of course, is the main subject of this post.
My initial take-aways on Google Video and Google Pack:

GOOGLE VIDEO. 

The proposed revenue split with content providers is particularly interesting, ESPECIALLY as it doesn't seem to take into account any additional advertising revenues that Google may get.  As John Battelle noted in his post:

"What is really interesting is the pricing leverage: Google is splitting revenues 70/30 - that's 70 to the content producer. Also very important is that the producers of content are the ones who set the price - again, totally different from traditional models."

It's a stake in the ground, but expect it to shift a fair bit about, likely by content categories.  Also, it'll obviously be important to see how the OTHER GYMAAAE companies proceed on the pricing front on THEIR video services.  Not to mention how the cable, telco and wireless companies are going to do with THEIR pricing plans.  Not only on the content side, but also on the distribution front, as noted a couple of days ago.

GOOGLE PACK.

At first blush, looking at the cornucopia of otherwise free and readily available software, now re-packaged in a nice, shiny "Google Pack" with "automatic" installation help seemed vaguely familiar...pulling me into a deeper sense of deja vu.

And then it hit me...of course...this is but a VIRTUAL, DIGITAL VERSION of the ubiquitous AOL disks, which came with AOL sign-up software, and a bunch more, "helpful" programs from third-party software "partners".

To be fair, the AOL disk bundles had more commercial strings attached (from the software vendors to AOL).  I'd be surprised if Google Pack has similar strings...yet.

As Paul Kedrosky pithily notes, it's interesting to note the motivation of this "product":

"My rule of thumb with bizarre product launches from companies is that the more bizarre they are, the more likely they were the pet project of the CEO/Founder. That logic was borne out in the announcement of Google Pack (a hodge-podge of one-off, mostly non-Google software), according to an interview with Google's Marissa Mayer late today in the Wall Street Journal:

[Google vice president Marissa] Mayer said the impetus for Google Pack was the frustration of Google's two co-founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, with installing basic software on new personal computers they purchased.

You just had to know it.

[Update] And apparently Eric Schmidt did know it, but went ahead with it anyway. The following is from the Engadget report on the Google Pack launch:

Eric [Schmidt] says he argued with Larry and Sergey about the need to do Google Pack, but they convinced them it was necessary to make the experience a lot better."

As someone who is always frustrated that it takes the better part of a day to set up a new Windows PC with JUST the right array of essential software, I empathize with the Google founders' here.

I actually think Google Pack is a good chess move for Google, especially in a GYM (Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft) context.

First, Yahoo! already has a far richer, deeper array of portal services that would make a similar third-party bundle more difficult since it would compete with existing in-house services.  Of course Yahoo! has distributed disks with tweaked Yahoo! configured browsers and services with it's telco broadband distribution partners, but nothing on the download side as of yet.

Ditto for Microsoft.

Second, IF Google Pack takes off, and it IS an IF, it then gives Google an automatic conduit for all types of software distribution into PCs, mobiles and hand-helds for MAINSTREAM users. 

Google Pack is somewhat underwhelming for power users like us geeks that LOVE to tweak out our systems with the latest and greatest software and services that make our online lives even SLIGHTLY easier.  We already have most of what Google Pack offers and MORE.  But guess what, most mainstream users couldn't be bothered. 

They generally rely on the third-party software bundles that come courtesy of their PC vendor, and guess what, most of them aren't BEST OF BREED since they come with commercial strings attached, just like the AOL disks of old.

It'll be interesting to see if  Google Pack sticks to the BEST OF BREED idea on the third-party side EVEN if some of them do accrue additional "distribution" revenues to Google. 

The third-party offerings could be applications, extensions, features, OTHER WEB 2.0 services by interesting startups, etc.  For Google, this is a great way for them to build a connection of trust and service with mainstream users, beyond their core competency, Search.

And of course, it'll always be a potential Trojan horse for any anti-Microsoft move they may choose to make in the future.

As John Battelle conversation with Google's Marissa Meyer highlights:

"I spoke to Marissa Mayer about Pack, and she had some fun stuff to say about it. I noticed no version of Open Office in the Pack, and she reminded me this is just the first version of the Pack, and since it updates itself automatically, why, there might be Open Office in an update shortly. They are in active discussions, I was told.

Pack, if it becomes popular, will bring a whole new set of users to Google, mainly because it includes Toolbar and Desktop, which of course means more searches, and more data, and more money for Google.

"We realize software distribution will have to become one of our core competencies," Mayer told me.

"Some of (the applications in Pack) will result in increased revenue to us," she also noted."

A Google version of Open Office (the highly rated, free, open-source Office suite) would be interesting, ESPECIALLY if it was tweaked to have a seamless ability to store and synchronize both online and off-line copies of word-processing, spreadsheet and slideshow documents.   

The online component could of course be Google's own Gmail offering, with it's 2.7 Gigabytes of free storage and growing.  I'd even pay extra for extra storage, knowing that anything I created on ANY of my PCs, laptops, mobiles and hand-helds was AUTOMATICALLY backed up and synced into my GDOC (Google Documents of course) account online, and OF COURSE indexed by Google Desktop for instant search and retrieval.

Of course, Microsoft could do something similar with Microsoft Office, especially with it's Office Live initiative and the recent acquisition of the excellent Foldershare.  But the economic algorithms would be different.

Looked at it that way, Google Pack starts to look a lot more interesting than another vanity project by the founders.

Comments

[EyeShakingKing]

What about: "Larry's content and Robin's mad-cap humor made for the best "keynote" at CES so far". Best Keynote? With all respect, have you drunk Google kool-aid? Compare that with the other announcements from MS or Yahoo...where's the meat? Since when announcing a mishmash of software (and at CES of all places) becomes such a news (not only that ...but also a strategical move??).
Don't you guys (and I'm talking about other pundits as well) try to read too much in something which very much looks like a desperate try from Google to force users to install a "Google updater" on their PC's.

[Anatoly Gaverovsky]

Foldershare is P2P application which shoulb be redesigned to support server centric stuff you wanted. We are designng such kind of applications, but for users of corporate applications like Salesforce.com, NetSuite, Documentum and others. And feedback is great! My notebook just died couple days ago( poor Fujitsu) and I have restored everything withing a minutes. So value is tremendous

Google is the only company who do not care about religion: web, ajax and other stuff. they are attackin Microsoft owned desktops by C++ developed stuff and doing it well.

Companies which will undrestand value of Desktop/Web integration: smooth, tranparent and invisible, will vbe winners in next few years