A PLACE AT THE TABLE
Today's front-page New York Times story titled "US to broaden India's access to nuclear-power technology" (registration required), is notable on a number of fronts not discussed in the article. But first, an executive summary from the article:
President Bush, bringing India a step closer to joining the club of nuclear-weapons states, reached an agreement with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to let India secure international help for its civilian nuclear reactors while retaining its nuclear arms.
The agreement, if approved by other nuclear countries and Congress, would remove a ban on civilian nuclear technology sales to India and with it a decades-long source of antagonism between the two countries.
India could obtain nuclear fuel and reactor components from the United States and other countries, and in return would allow international inspections and safeguards on its civilian nuclear program, and refrain from further weapons tests and from transferring arms technology to other countries.
Beyond that, the agreement would bring a significant gain in India's international status: from that of pariah, since it first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974 and refused to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to something close to acceptance as a nuclear-armed nation.
The article adds:
A senior State Department official, giving a briefing under ground rules in which he could not be identified, said that the Bush administration still hoped India would eventually give up nuclear weapons, and that the administration rebuffed an Indian request to be recognized formally as a nuclear weapons state under the treaty.
It also highlights that what is happening has been part and parcel of a strategy that started with President Eisenhower:
The basic international program governing such matters has been in place since President Eisenhower proposed an "atoms for peace" project in which countries would voluntarily give up nuclear arms in return for access to nuclear energy components like reactors and fuel, and would submit to international inspection.
The program was codified in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, or NPT, which has 187 signatories, including five countries with nuclear weapons. But several major countries, including India, Pakistan and Israel, have refused to sign it.
There are several initial thoughts that emanate from this announcement:
- THE PAKISTAN REACTION TO BE ADDED TO THE LIST: India has differentiated itself in "earning" this acceptance by virtue of not sharing weapons technology with other countries as Pakistan and others have done (the State Department source points this out). IN ADDITION, by virtue of having a true "democracy" with checks and balances between the civilian leadership and the military, the country also provides a higher degree of assurance to the world that it's "grown up", and is ready for the global responsibilities of this technology, in both its civilian and military applications. This is again, something that Pakistan has to grow into by developing a civilian government system that checks corruption and more becomes more immune to the resulting military coups that seem as regular as the seasons. In the meantime, there is much to do in terms of improved relations between India and Pakistan, as I've touched on before.
- PRECEDENT FOR OTHER COUNTRIES: It definitely provides a model that could work for other countries to follow, even if they are currently categorized as "rogue" countries. It obviously helps to have some value as a counter-weight to global geopolitical strategic realities, as India did vis a vis China and the US.
- SCORE ONE FOR SECRETARY OF STATE CONDOLEEZA RICE: While it may not be as ground-breaking as "Nixon going to China", this does show Secretary Rice's chops as being able to execute a Kissingeresque style of "realpolitik".
- SO WHO'S THE NEXT ONE TO WALK THROUGH THIS GATE? Possibly a unified Korea sometime in the distant future?
Interesting times...more to come...reactions/thoughts always welcome.
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