HALF-BAKED RIFFING

Thursday, December 20, 2007

ON THE NEED FOR FACEBOOK ETIQUETTE

DEFINING LIMITS

I don't know about you, but I'm finding that increasingly, the bulk of the inbox and notification messages I get on Facebook are what seem to be "mass-mail" invitations to various events to attend, groups to join, or applications to install.  And most of these "applications" seem to be games, fun-walls, killing zombies and other relatively light distractions.

It takes 10-15 minutes every day to sort through this stuff, before one can get anything useful out of Facebook at all.

At any other time, one might dismiss these as spam, but I'm finding that a lot of these are from friends (mostly real ones, not just Facebook acquaintances).

Call it friendly spam, for lack of a better term.

I guess it's no different than getting a deluge of emails from friends in the mid-nineties when email was new to mainstream users, with some witty joke to read, or photo to peruse.  And of course there was always this encouragement to pass it on and share the joy.

In that sense, the Facebook version of this experience is a bit of deja vu.

The difference is that unlike with email, that one could just ignore and not read, every one of these messages asks for an action by the user before being dismissed.  You know, "attending", "maybe attending", "not attending" for events, "join"/"don't join" for groups, and "install"/"don't install" for applications.

A couple of physical clicks are required to dismiss and navigate away from them, and even then, you're never sure if the friend that sent them is going to get a message saying "your so-called friend dismissed your invitation to such and such group, event or application".

With over 50 million Facebook users now, it may be time for a Facebook etiquette book, not unlike Emily Post's "Etiquette" book published in 1922.  It'd lay down the proper etiquette for both senders and receivers of communications on Facebook. 

Any violation would be punishable by having to clear out the inbox of a Facebook whale for a week.  A Facebook whale, of course, is someone like Robert Scoble or Mark Cuban, who've reached the Facebook max of 5000 friends.  Clearing those inboxes every day has got to be a chore that'd make a good deterrent.

The book would also need to cover what the heck to do if you're getting "pokes" from people on a regular basis, and you're over 30 and have never experienced the joys of Facebook poking in your twenties.

I guess I should poke someone back if they poke me, but what does one do if they poke back again? Do you poke back again?  What to do when they poke back again and again?  When does it stop?  Or does it ever stop?

The same question of course applies to zombie bites.

Then there's the issue of those invitations to play Scrabulous or online poker or some such thing, most of them coming during working hours in a workday.  I mean do economists now need to factor in the effect of Facebook games on productivity growth in the economy in coming quarters?

Now I know people have tried to write one or two pages of Facebook etiquette for some time now.  You can find lots of them with a Google search.

There's even a blog called Proper Facebook Etiquette.

What I'm talking about here though, is a hefty, meaty, beefy tome.  At least a couple of hundred pages and a few pictures (color preferably).

Something with a real-life publisher.  Something someone would need to shell out good money for.

And not a Kindle only version either.

Something someone can then physically grab and throw* at a real life friend in real life for having spammed you that morning with an invitation to install yet another Facebook funwall.

Damn, I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue.

* Throw to miss of course.  This blog would never condone actual attacks that may result in physical injury**.

**Is that enough fine print?

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

ON REPUTATIONAL MORTALITY FOR ALL OF US

ALL HANG OUT

Given the on-going discussion around Facebook's privacy policies, here's a priceless bit from an article in the UK's Guardian on online privacy:

"A survey found that although 71% of 14- to 21-year-olds did not want their future employers to look at their profiles on social networking sites, only 40% realised that their online activities could be traced indefinitely."

And this is the "net-savvy" generation, the one that's supposed to know how it all works.

I talked about how the MySpace and the original Facebook generation needs to take their online privacy more seriously, a year and a half ago, emphasizing that:

"...it's not just about their behavior on services like MySpace and Facebook, but their conduct all across the web, including services like instant messaging, SMS texting and the like. 

They are leaving reputational footprints that in many cases will be a matter of permanent record, potentially increasing their reputational mortality."

Ironically, just as these "young 'uns" are getting more concerned about their online reputations, the older fogies like myself are emulating them and throwing their traditional caution to the wind. 

They're embracing social networking and new communications services like Twitter, sharing the minutiae of their lives with strangers and near-strangers.

And services like Facebook are signing on partners across the web with services like Beacon to transmit your daily activities across the web to your mini news feed on Facebook.  I've written about this a few days ago, and Dare Obasanjo just had a good post on how this works.

We've all heard the arguments on why the traditional privacy concerns don't matter and why it's really different this time.  Any one want to crack at guessing the odds?

Friday, June 08, 2007

ON AN APPLE AND GOOGLE COLLABORATION

LOCK-STEP

I found myself nodding in agreement reading this piece from Wired, mostly because it's something I've felt made sense for a long time:

"On Monday Jobs is taking the stage at Apple's worldwide developers conference in San Francisco to do what he does best - tell us all about Apple's latest products and reinforce his place as the most charismatic CEO on the planet.

He'll probably announced a new Ipod, tell us more about the iPhone  etc etc. One announcement I'm almost sure of, however : A far reaching, cloud computing partnership with Google. Both companies have been hinting about it for months, and it makes perfect sense.

Cloud computing is the hot new thing in the world of technology right now; Apple is a complete laggard; and it knows it needs to fix it. Apple makes beautiful hardware, but it hasn't improved on .Mac, its cloud based storage offering, in years. You get 1GB of storage on .Mac for $100. That's laughable in an era where you can get double that for nothing. 

Meanwhile, Google runs cloud based hardware and software better and cheaper than anyone in the world right now. How does it make money?

By getting as many people as possible looking at advertising alongside search and other various software offerings. Imagine all the traffic from the following: You buy a Mac and you automatically get a free Google account."

I've complained previously about Apple's lacking presence online, including the meager services offered with a .Mac subscription.

The Wired piece goes on to report anecdotal pieces of supporting signs of this possibility, including statements by Apple board member, and Google CEO Eric Schmidt:

"We're a perfect back end to the problems that they're trying to solve," Schmidt told me. "They have very good judgment on user interface and people. But they don't have this supercomputer (that Google has), which is the data centers. What they have is a manufacturing business that's doing quite well."

What about Steve Jobs?

"Jobs' response to .Mac's whithered state? In response to a question last week he actually agreed, adding "stay tuned."

Apple and Google, could go together like peanut butter and jelly.

Disclosure:  I hold shares in both companies.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

ON GOOGLE CPC, PPA & OTSOG

SOMETHING BORROWED, SOMETHING GOO...

The top discussion thread on Techmeme today, is on Google's announcement that they're adding a pay-per action (PPA) model to their juggernaut of a business model based on cost-per-click (CPC).  There are a fair number of good pieces on the importance of these, and I'd point to the TechCrunch, Valleywag and New York Times ones in particular.

What caught my note particularly, is this observation by Michael Arrington of TechCrunch in his write-up on the announcement:

"Like CPC ads, PPA advertising wasn’t invented by Google. Search engine Snap has been selling ads this way for some time, for example."

For you tech history buffs, Snap is the brain-child of Bill Gross, of Idealab fame, who was also the brains behind GoTo.com (later renamed Overture, and sold to Yahoo!).

It's well-documented amongst Google historians (particularly by John Battelle in his book "The Search"), how the company innovated around the CPC model pioneered by GoTo.com, with it's own twist, and made it the best business model in the tech industry, well, since Microsoft.

One of my favorite phrases is the term OTSOG, which stands for "On the Shoulders of Giants".  It has many origins, but the most famous one is Isaac Newton.  As his Wikipedia entry notes:

"Newton himself was rather more modest of his own achievements, famously writing in a letter to Robert Hooke in February 1676

"If I have seen further it is by standing on ye shoulders of giants"

Seems OTSOG could be paraphrased in a different way. 

Google has, and hopefully continues to achieve great things by standing On the Shoulders of Gross.

It'll be interesting to see how they innovate around PPA as they have around CPC.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

ON INTEGRATION OF iPHONE WITH BMW CARS

EYES ON THE ROAD

AppleInsider reports that BMW may have scored a bit of a coup with Apple's new iPhone.  Specifically,

"According to a blurb published by AutoSpies this week, the German auto maker Iphone will be the first to announce multi-level connectivity with the Apple device in an upcoming version of its high-end 7-Series sedan.
The otherwise unenlightening report offers readers no additional detail aside from mentioning that the rumored integration will go beyond "just Bluetooth..."
...BMW was the first major auto maker to team with Apple on seamless integration between iPods and a car audio systems back in 2004, when it unveiled a car battery-powered iPod hookup that tucked the players safely in the glove compartment.
The solution, which was revealed exclusively by AppleInsider, introduced a way for drivers to enjoy high fidelity sound through their car's stereo system while controlling their iPod using buttons on the BMW steering wheel."

As a long time fan of BMW's flagship 7-series, this is obviously of interest to this observer.  However, at a time when most new cars can integrate almost any new phone/PDA via Bluetooth, it's not entirely clear what integration BMW and Apple may be planning, that takes them beyond "Just Bluetooth".

This is pure speculation on my part, but BMW is rumored to be incorporating an updated version of Bmwhud a Heads-Up Display (aka HUD), in the new 7-series either this year or next. 

This feature is something various auto makers like BMW, Cadillac and others have been deploying in the last couple of years, with the notion being to provide more information to the driver without him/her taking eyes off the road. 

The technology was originally developed for fighter pilots, who were the primary beneficiaries of these HUD systems over the last few decades.  It's already available from BMW in certain 5 and 6-series models.

One can imagine being able to navigate through one's contacts in the iPhone, along with the unique "Visual Voicemail system" via the Heads up display, using voice recognition.

Curious if others can think up additional ways an iPhone could be integrated with a car "beyond Bluetooth".

Saturday, August 12, 2006

ON CUSTOMER SERVICE IN CHAOTIC TIMES

SERVICE UNDER PRESSURE

Rod Boothby of the blog Innovation Creators had an interesting post up regarding his changed travel plans on the day the London terror plot was revealed a couple of days ago.  I'd like to highlight the following:

"Today's news out of England (Plot to Bomb Jets Is Thwarted in Britain) has changed my plans.   Or, to put it more accurately, after she heard the news, my wife asked me to change my plans.  ;)

I'm writing this post because I figure that just as bloggers sometimes use their blogs to highlight bad customer service, we also have an obligation to highlight great customer service.

After making my decision not to go, I called Continental, and asked them to change my flight to a later date. I was helped by a customer service agent who said her name was Phillis. She was great. Kind, understanding and really helpful. She worked quickly to both get me another flight (in November) and to make sure that I would not be charged a change fee.

I'm not sure what the innovation is in all this.   

Regardless, Continental Airlines took great care of me today."

Couple of thoughts as I was reading this...Rod's right, we bloggers don't shout out when we get good or great service as often as we complain when we don't.

In that vein, I thought I'd share a couple of "better than expected" service experiences I had on the "day of travel days". 

They both had to do with my wife, who was on a multi-city business trip on the east coast this past week.  She had one of her worst travel days in recent memory that day, compared to my relative walk in the park travel day on the west coast.

Specifically, she was flying from Atlanta to Charlotte that day, to be followed by a flight to Pittsburgh.

Long story short, she was delayed a number of hours in Atlanta both due to the terror situation and local weather.  Finally, after waiting over four hours through the evening, she got word that her flight to Charlotte was canceled.  It was the last flight out that way that night.

Luckily, after a bit of scrambling, she managed to get on a midnight flight to Pittsburgh.  She managed to call me just as the plane was pushing off the gate to let me know of the change, and asked me to cancel her hotel in Charlotte and book one in Pittsburgh. 

Her checked roller bag of course was still booked to go to Charlotte, and she just didn't have time to get it out.  Ironically, the only reason it was checked was that the rules had changed and toiletries and cosmetics weren't allowed as carry-on bags. 

Upon calling the Hilton hotel in Charlotte, I got a desk clerk who was very sympathetic and helpful as he heard the story.  Being past midnight there, he informed me that he was the night security clerk, and that he would relay the info to the front desk ASAP, and make sure that the reservation guarantee charge would be reversed and canceled due to the circumstances.

He then called me back an hour later to confirm that the charge had been canceled.  That was a better than expected service moment.

Similarly, when I called the Hyatt hotel at Pittsburgh airport, the gentleman at the front desk patiently heard out my wife's plight.  He had no rooms at all for the night, but then after a pause offered me the "Premier suite" at half price.  It was the only thing left at that time.

Needless to say, given my limited choices that night, I took him up on his offer.  Given that he had other guests in front of him at the front desk just then, he just took down my wife's name and assured me that she'd have a room, and that no other info (credit card etc.), was necessary to hold the room.

That too was a better than expected service moment.

Almost two days later, my wife is still trying to track down the status of her luggage via Delta.  The airline is still not sure whether it's in Atlanta or in Charlotte.  We're hoping it will some day make it's way back to California.

That, I regret to report, is very much an "As Expected" service moment.

Monday, June 05, 2006

ON JEANS WITH INTERACTIVE MESSAGES

RAISING THE ANTE

A few weeks ago I posted about new license plate holders with the capability to display your own message to the world via built-in LED text displays.

Uranium_jeans A French company, Uranium Jeans is doing that one better, by applying the same idea to personal clothing, in this case, hip designer jeans.

From Gizmodo:

"While many young ladies can make blue jeans talk by just walking down the street, others may need technological help, and that’s where Uranium Jeans can spell it out right there across their asses.

The scrolling LED text, displayed by an embedded flexible micro screen, can be changed via text messaging from a cellphone, or stock messages can be downloaded from the Uranium Jeans web site. A Uranium Jeans store just opened in St. Tropez this week, and there’s a store coming to L.A. late this summer."

You think they may sell a few of these in L.A.?

And what about road rage on the freeways being supplemented by sidewalk rages as folks react to messages designed to provoke a reaction?

It does make one think as to what might be next? 

Equipping jeans with a local bluetooth network so one can share the LED text messages wirelessly?

Your thoughts are welcome as usual.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

ON BILL GATES' MUSINGS AT "D"

TELL IT LIKE IT IS

Dan Farber at ZDNet has a good piece summarizing Bill Gates' kick-off interview with Walter Gatesd4001 Mossberg and Kara Swisher at the fourth annual Wall Street Journal "D" Conference in California.

It's always good to hear Bill Gates speak even on generally familiar topics since he adds nuanced insights through his extemporaneous and sometimes candid comments.

The "D" session is no different.  Here are my takes on the "nuanced insights" from the Farber summary:

1.  ON RADICALLY DIFFERENT OFFICE 2007:

"Gates described the new UI as a "scary step" and as "risky." The crowd was impressed, as were Walt and Kara, by the improvements to the user experience. They are significant, and one of the first times Microsoft has taken a substantial leap–at least five years in the making–in altering the user experience.

The geeky crowd clamored for a look at Outlook 2007, but it wasn't forthcoming."

To get a sense of just how "scary" the next version of Office is, take a look at this comprehensive Fig1_ribbon_sm tour of the beta by ComputerWorld.  For one thing, the familiar menus and toolbars in all the applications have been replaced with contextual "ribbons" that provide task-specific functionality when and where needed (that's the hope anyway).  And that's just the beginning.

2.  ON A MICROSOFT iPOD KILLER:

"Gates was asked about a rumored portable media player (iPod competitor) that the Xbox group is reportedly working on. "I have no announcement to make today," Gates said. "We are looking at various ways to bring more to that space. There is a lot yet that hasn't been done."

Good stuff...we like to see new stuff that hasn't yet been done...but hopefully Microsoft has internalized one of Apple's key rules of product designs:  "Less is More".

3.   ON OFFICE FUNCTIONALITY IN THE CLOUD:

There's no question that Bill Gates gets the vision of how much of today's Office functionality could be made available via the Internet, either by competitors and/or through Microsoft's own efforts.  Case in point:

"Gates was asked about the profusion of Web-based applications, specially Writely, which as acquired by Google this year...

"More storage is going to be in the cloud, a lot for free and what's not will be very inexpensive. Office connects up with Office Live or other cloud storage efforts to have your documents wherever you want to have them," Gates said..."

"...Gates also talked about Microsoft's cloud storage ambitions, which called "petabytes in the sky." Drives are getting faster and cheaper, and Microsoft will have a variety of services that will connect to petabytes in the sky, including synchronization and backup services."

The question though is how Microsoft addresses this opportunity not just technically, but also with the least negative impact to it's existing business model. 

It was also gratifying that Bill also finds the name "Office Live" lacking:

"When I spoke to Gates before the interview, he was extolling the virtues of Office Live (which he admitted is misnamed, since it doesn't replicate the functionality of the Office suite) and SharePoint Server 2007, which he has said will be looked upon as the most revolutionary aspect of Office 2007."

ComputerWorld agrees on the SharePoint Server:

"Microsoft's direction is clear: sharing, collaborating, searching. You can post PowerPoint slides to a SharePoint server, and your colleagues can select which ones to use in building their own presentations.

Enterprises today typically put entire presentation files on a shared network drive; using SharePoint lets users select individual slides in what Microsoft calls a SharePoint Slide Library. And users can be automatically notified when a shared slide is changed (so you'll know when a slide you've incorporated has been updated with the new company logo, for example)."

SharePoint obviously is most helpful in a corporate, group-sharing context.

4.  ON BEING EARLY WITH XBOX 360:  Gates offered another benefit from the massive investment in the XBOX initiative,

"He singled out Xbox Live as a success story, saying that 5 million pieces of content were download from the service last week. "The stickiness of the product is radically different,  so there is an advantage to an early mover," Gates said."

Maybe, maybe not.  To be continued.

5.  ON DARING COMPETITORS TO COMPETE:  At times, Gates revealed his feisty, competitive spirit,

"...next generation UI (speech, ink and vision, which will take  billions in research and dared anyone with an operating system to compete on that front)."

Google's got it's own seemingly Quixotic areas that it's spending oodles of money on.  It remains to be seen on which of who's made the right bets at the right time.

6.  ON MOST PITHY QUOTE:  The best Bill Gates line in the article, for me anyway, was this one in the context of the media industry trying to cope with the tectonic changes wrought by technology:

"He noted that the broadcast networks are trying to have their cake and eat it, trying to keep affiliates and advertisers happy at the same time they are pushing a la carte programming and feeling the impact of IPTV.

"There is a difference between what technology enables and what historical business practices enable."

Amen.

Great rundown by Dan Farber.  Look for more from the "D" conference over the next few days.

Monday, February 06, 2006

ON WEB 2.0 LOGOS JUST LIKE WEB 1.0

"THE MORE THINGS CHANGE..."

The image  below from Flickr of Web 2.0 logos has been getting a fair amount of discussion over Web_20_mania_1 the last few days.  I first saw it on Russell Beattie's blog a few days ago (click for larger image).

As a "Web 1.0" old-timer, what struck me most looking at this was how indistinguishable these logos IN AGGREGATE seem to be from ones over half a decade ago. 

Talk about Deja vu.

Of course there was no Flickr back then to catalog the logos, so we're making progress in substance if not form.

And the only way to see a lot of Internet company logos in one place was to spread out all the IPO prospectus books out on a big table. 

The second and third pictures below have some of the logos from those days to jog your memory.

But the bright colors, the "happy" fonts, and the loopy names are the same.

Web_10 Web_10_med For once it'd be cool to see a consumer Internet company logo that wasn't trying to emote a Yahoo!, eBay or Google.

So I guess it's like the acting business.  Every new thespian wants to emulate the standards.  Kind of like every actor yelling "Stella" a la Marlon Brando, Stella_1 playing Stanley Kowalski in "A Streetcar named Desire".

Monday, January 09, 2006

ON "WHERE'S THE BEEF?" FROM CES TABLET PC MEETUP

MAY WE HAVE MORE, PLEASE?

Apparently, almost 50 Tablet PC enthusiasts and movers & shakers met up for a $1000 plus burger dinner at CES, and had a great time.

I'm glad for them.

A number of them even posted on how great it all was...here are some of the posts (via memeorandum:

But what gets me is that none of the folks who were there posted on WHAT WAS ACTUALLY DISCUSSED about TABLET PCs at the event.

For instance,

  • What burning questions/issues did people have on the evolution of Tablet PCs into 2006 and beyond?
  • What were the general observations/impressions of some of the stuff showed at CES by folks like Motion Computing, OQO, DualCor cPc etc.? (incidentally, JK has a SEPARATE post on the DualCor cPc that's pretty good).
  • After having seen Motion's LS800 "slate" compact Tablet PC and OQO's +! with the Tablet PC OS installed, what did folks think of the two side by side?
  • What were Tablet PC apps/utilities/software most folks there excited about? Used most?
  • Any other general insights into buying/using/evaluating/contemplating Tablet PCs going forward?

Anything beyond how great it was, and how much fun everybody had...share the joy with the rest of us Tablet PC crazies who weren't there. 

Not ranting here folks, just asking for a little more beef.

Saturday, December 03, 2005

ON MYSPACE MAKING THE COVER OF BUSINESSWEEK

HERE WE GO AGAIN

Well, MySpace made the cover of BusinessWeek (via memeorandum), a publication that I generally like, respect, and read. 

However, everal questions raced through my mind as I saw this:

  1. "MySpace Generation??" Do the editor realize how corny and trite that title really sounds?
  2. When the sub-title says "They live online. They buy online. They play online. Their power is growing", does this mean that anyone outside that "young, Generation @ or X" demographic is NOT doing any of those things in large and significant numbers?
  3. Does this mean the beginning of the end for MySpace and Rupert Murdoch's $680 million big bet?
  4. Does this mean social networking is REALLY over?
  5. Does this mean Web 2.0 is over?
  6. Do the BusinessWeek editors realize how off-the-mark  a cover story like this usually comes across, especially in hindsight?
  7. Did BusinessWeek not learn it's lessons from running and hyping similar glowing cover stories about the "Information SuperHighway", Netscape, and other Web 1.0 related hoopla a decade ago?
  8. How long before BusinessWeek's competitors here and overseas feel compelled to run similar stories?
  9. Do  cover stories like this REALLY help circulation in the short run? In the long run?
  10. How long before BusinessWeek runs a cover story on how hyped the social networking/Web 2.0 space became and/or refer negatively to the MySpace acquisition by News Corp.?

Any more questions come up your end?

Friday, November 11, 2005

ON GOING FROM THE BIG "GYM" THREE TO THE BIG SEVEN

PICK SOME LETTERS OUT OF THE BAG

OK, so Om Malik wants to abstain from the Big Three Internet companies for a week, a la Seinfeld in the famous "Master of my Domain" episode.  He says:

"...lets admit it, whether we hate them, or we love them, we do love to talk about them. Them being Google, Yahoo and Microsoft aka GYM. What would happen if the blogosphere decided that we would not talk about the Big Three for a whole week? Instead we shifted our focus on the little guys, interesting technologies, and some other important stuff. Can the blogs exist without talking about the GYM?"

To which Dave Winer offers his own game:

"Richard MacManus talks about The Big 3, and there is a trend to think about three companies -- Google, Microsoft and Yahoo -- as the leaders in online.

But I don't think that really works, because well, there are three more that are probably just as powerful as the others, but in different ways. Who are are they? Why don't we make this a game. For 15 points each, which three companies are also leading?"

So of course he's adding three out of four biggies that I think could be added to GYM:

  1. AOL:  You could go with either A or T (Time Warner for a little while anyway) as the letter to add to GYM.
  2. eBay:  So we get an E, lower case as it is.
  3. Amazon:  Another vowel, yeaA!
  4. Apple:  regular readers know I've certainly talked about them as a biggie...so another A.

That gives us seven letters...which gives me the idea to propose my own game:  SCRABBLE.
Out of either:

  1. GYMAAAE or
  2. GYMAATE,

What's the longest word you can make?

I'll start off with a word that probably represents how some brand-spanking new Web 2.0 start-ups might think of our list of SEVEN Web 1.0 biggies:

GAMEY

Any other words that come to mind?  You can use either of the two "bags" of tiles above.

Friday, October 21, 2005

ON PAYMENT FOR PEER PRODUCTION

PAYMENT IN KIND

UPDATED BELOW*

A subject discussed at the Union Square Ventures' event (see earlier post) was the issue of who gets paid what and how for "peer production" in a web 2.0 world.  It's a subject worth some exploration.

Most of the discussion to date focuses on how the web services themselves can make money from peer production. 

But the broader question for me is how users are eventually compensated for their "peer production" today and over time.

Payment for our peer participation and production to date on services like Wikipedia, Flickr, blogs and the like are primarily in non-cash terms.

Specifically they can be classified in the following categories:

  1. Convenient functionality for all (e.g., Flickr, Del.icio.us, Wikipedia and  of course, Google).
  2. Reputation as in the case of bloggers, reviewers and commentators on the web (aka vanity).
  3. Generosity, as highlighted by Tom Evslin in the discussion at the USV session.  Good example here are the mostly anonymous contributions by countless folks to entries in Wikipedia.
  4. Monetary compensation direct and indirect, as in the case of eBay sellers who get direct cash from sales and Google advertisers, who presumably get transactions from the leads they pay for through Adsense and Adwords on the service and affiliates.

In most cases, we get convenient functionality as the top form of compensation in web 2.0 services, by being able to share in the efforts of many around a subject of interest to one. 

As pointed out aptly by Tim O'Reilly in the session, this is particularly true in the case of Google, where every user's search fuels the efficacy of the search for all. 

Google's shareholders of course benefit here, particularly when the company reports a seven-fold increase in profits for the third quarter of over $380 million on revenues of a little over a billion dollars. 

Not bad for a seven year old company monetizing very well the 5% of time and attention that users worldwide spend on search on the Internet.

In a world where the "peers" in peer production are paid mostly in convenience or reputation (aka vanity) in the case of blogs, user comments and the like, one wonders how far we are from a time when a search engine and other web 2.0 businesses offer a piece of the cash to users for their attention and loyalty in any form.

It's been tried before of course in Web 1.0 days...the notion of paying money to search users.  iWon.com is the poster child here, which continues to pay users in cash prizes to this day (over $64 million to date according to their website).

Of course back in the web 1.0 days, the prize money was a customer acquisition expense.  Today in the world of paid-search, there is real revenue that can be split with users.

Alternatively, search engines could offer a loyalty program a la the airlines that offers specific awards and benefits for sustained usage and loyalty.

In a trillion dollar plus world of global advertising, direct marketing and promotion, it's not unreasonable for peers to collectively ask for a piece of the pie.  Especially when there's SO MUCH of it to go around.

Whatever form it takes, at some point in the evolution of the web, consumers and users may ask for and get more tangible compensation beyond functionality, reputation and feelgood generosity, in exchange for their attention to all things on the web.

Why, we may even call it web 3.0.

After all it is VERY personal and it is BIG business.

The next Google wannabes of course will keep this in mind.

UPDATES:

*David Gibbons of Poductivity has an interesting comment below applying some of Umair P2p_revshare031Haque's thinking on microchunking to the eBay-Skype acquistion, that happens to be relevant to the paying for peer production thesis above.  For reader convenience, here are the live links to the slide and his original post.  My own post on the eBay-Skype acquisition can be found here.

 
 

Tuesday, October 18, 2005

ON CHINA REAL ESTATE BOOM

UP, UP AND AWAY...

Great article in the New York Times (registration required) on the real estate boom in China...it starts with this gangbuster opening:

"China Builds Its Dreams, and Some Fear a Bubble

     

SHANGHAI, Oct. 16 - Move over, New York. This year alone, Shanghai will complete towers with more space for living and working than there is in all the office buildings in New York City.

That is in a city that already has 4,000 skyscrapers, almost double the number in New York. And there are designs to build 1,000 more by the end of this decade.

China's real estate market is so hot that miniature cities are being created with artificial lakes, and the country's nouveau riche suddenly seem eager to put down as much as $5.3 million for a luxury apartment in skyscrapers with names like the Skyline Mansion."

Another eye-opener midway through the article:

"It is not surprising that in a country where 170 metropolitan areas have more than a million people, according to government figures, everyone seems to want to be a developer.

State-owned oil and steel giants, automobile companies, shipbuilders and even Communist Party newspapers are creating real estate subsidiaries."

The economic circumstances and pricing are different, but some of these anecdotes are reminiscent of the property boom in Japan in the eighties, when land in Tokyo was valued higher than all of the property in the US.

China no doubt has great economic and investment potential over the next few decades, but it's important to keep reminding ourselves that it'll be a really bumpy road.

 

Wednesday, October 05, 2005

ON GLOBAL PORTAL ANIMATION DIVIDE

BLINKETY BLINK

It hit me as I was surfing the Indian portal for the Times of India.  There were a lot of flashing, animated, blinking, things on the home page.  They were flashing both on the editorial and advertising segments of the page.  Mini-phrases like "click me" and "click here" were flashing away reminding me of neon signs in Times Square. 

Not to mention the half a dozen or so pop-ups that were blocked by my built-in browser defenses.

That evoked a sense of deja vu.  I'd seen this before...racked my brain, and of course...I've seen this on a number of Asian portal home pages. 

Quickly opened firefox tabs for Chinese portals Sina.com, Sohu.com, 163.com, china.com, along with South Korean Daum.net, and then to double-check another Indian portal rediff.com.

ALL OF THEM had blinking, flashing, animated elements beckoning you to pay attention and click.

Why did this strike me as unusual?

Of course!  Most of the time, I'm on US portals like Yahoo!, MSN, AOL and the newly out of the closet, protean-portal, Google.  And most of them may have the occasional banner ad with some mild Flash animation.

And NONE of them have anywhere near the blinking animations of their Asian counterparts.  Well, occasionally, you'll see an animated banner ad or two, but nothing like the Times Square bling of an Asian portal on an average night or day.

Why is that?  Do Asian users prefer the animated stuff more than US users?  Do they click on the ads more? Do advertisers demand animated inventory in these countries, more so than here? Are the click-through rates higher for editorial and the advertising content?  I don't have the answers, but they struck me as relevant questions.

Is it because the broadband penetration has been higher earlier in Asia than in the US?  Well, that doesn't apply to China and India, who are behind US broadband deployment rates.

What about the Asian versions of the US portals?  What does their bling factor look like?

I checked it out the grand-daddy of expatriate US portals, Yahoo! Japan...and sure enough, it looked like the static, buttoned down Japanese twin version of its US namesake.  But the local, Japanese portal Goo, did have some animated ads going, although not as many as its Asian counterparts.

What about Europe I thought?  Where do they stand on hyper-active portals?
Sure enough, both Free and Wanadoo in France were distinctly animated, imagine that.

The German T-Online portal was static and sedate, and properly behaved.

Not sure where all this anecdotal, non-scientific comparative global discussion is going, but I daresay, US portals will likely follow the lead of their Asian peers, as broadband penetration in the US goes higher from the 55% of households today.

Mind you, I'm just talking about portals and not search engines here.  There Google remains the spartan example to copy world-wide, whether its emulators here like Icerocket, or overseas like Baidu in China. 

You don't mess with super-success...unless of course the next Google shows us the new way.

Saturday, October 01, 2005

ON OPPORTUNITIES FOR SECONDARY SCREENS ON PHONES, PDAs AND LAPTOPS

THE THIRD EYE

VC David Beisel of Genuine VC has an interesting post titled "Opportunities for the Third
Moto_screen3_1Screen", on how increasing number of cell phones have second and third screens and how they're potentially prime real estate for monetization by ads and offers.  Specifically, David says:

"Motorola was talking about its plan to release new dynamic idle-screen technology, called Screen3, by year’s end. The technology, “essentially pushes Internet information to a mobile phone's main screen. Thus, users can get news updates or the latest weather forecasts with just a glance at their phones, without having to open sluggish WAP browsers or other applications.”

The challenge is not how to exploit the opportunity when it presents itself, but how to make sure consumers are not alienated by an overwhelming amount of "buy me"/"click here" type of offers.

Incidentally, this is something that may be an opportunity and issue soon for laptops and ExtlaptopscreenPDAs as well.  Microsoft next version of its flagship OS, Windows Vista will support secondary screens, envisioned mostly to be on the outside of a laptop to provide say information from Outlook at a quick glance, without having to fire up the laptop (picture via Gizmodo).

This feature has already been envisioned for the budding handtop PC category, typified Flipstartby Paul Allen's FlipstartPC.

It's external screen resembles something you'd seen on a cell phone today.

Features_lidmoduleAll these pieces of real estate will be prime for additional monetization if consumers seem to tolerate and like it. 

Obviously, the volumes are going to much more economically interesting on cell phones than laptops and PDAs.  But they're all places we're likely to see second and third screens.

Indian Hindu mythology speaks of the third eye being the "eye of higher perception", originating with Lord Shiva.  Hopefully we're wise enough to use our artificial third screens for similar higher purposes.

Saturday, September 24, 2005

ON THE OTHER SIDES OF INDIA

BOTH SIDES OF THE SAME COIN

Two stories from India of note this week, illustrating some of the best aspects of India's astonishing growth and how much the glass is still empty.

First, this story from the Financial Times on the record New York-based sales of Indian art at both MahisasuraChristie's and Sotheby's, with the first Indian painting ("Mahisasura" by Tyeb Mehta) selling for over a million dollars ($1.6 million in this case). 

There's a lengthier post here in the Indianartnews blog, which also had the adjacent picture.

It represents a milestone in the nascent market for Indian art worldwide, and symbolizes how far the country has come over the last decade.

On the flip side, is this unrelated story from BBC News (via Anna of SepiaMutiny), reminds us of the other reality of India beyond the now generally well-known and understood "Flat World"-Biggest-Rising-Global-Economic-Power-After-China story. An excerpt:

"A 12-year-old Indian girl committed suicide after her mother told her she could not afford one rupee - two US cents - for a school meal."

As someone who was born in India, but spent most of his life abroad, the poverty visible in India today continues to be as heart-wrenching as I remember it from years past.  It's the one thing most first time visitors to India are the least prepared to witness, despite all the stories they may have heard from folks beforehand.

As this unrelated article from the ScienceBlog (Lancet) shows, the suicide rate for India's young (ages 10-19), already ranks amongst the highest rates of in the world.  The study from last year indicates 148 out of 100,000 young women and 54 per 100,000 young men, compared to 14.5 per 100,000 for the rest of the world on average.

Besides abject poverty as in the case above, other related causes tend to be related to stress related to a very competitive education system, and social/cultural forces.

As the BBC article suggests, India's got a long way to go before the current economic growth materially changes the lives of the majority of India's billion plus people.  But things are moving in the right general direction.

Monday, September 19, 2005

ON THE MYOPIA OF TV EVENING NEWS

NO NEWS BEFORE IT'S TIME

This is anecdotal I admit, but scanning through the evening news shows on TV tonight, from 6 to around 8 pm, I'm struck again by how the national TV news shows (ABC, CBS, NBC), along with the cable news channels (CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC et al), are captivated only by the big news story of the moment, to the detriment of all else. 

It's about nothing but Katrina (the politics thereof and the regurgitation of the same old "recovery" news), and the upcoming Hurricane Rita.

No mention of Iraq (I guess the number of dead were way below a handful, which is what it seems to take to get even 15 seconds or so on the subject).

Nothing on the post-election standoff in Germany, only the third largest economy that mainstream US audiences should know something about.

I know that this near-sightedness is nothing new, but it never fails to bug me, every time.

As someone once said, the TV news folks are like 9-year olds playing soccer...everyone gleefully piles onto the soccer ball whichever new direction it's kicked in, with no thought to strategy and perspective.

Just had to vent a bit...thanks for being there.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

ON SUPREME COURT LIFE-TIME TERMS

SERVING ONE'S TIME

The sad passing of Chief Justice Rehnquist has prompted me to re-learn some aspects of our Judiciary Branch that I'd forgotten or perhaps never learned.

The first question that came to my mind upon President Bush's re-appointment of Judge Roberts for Chief Justice Rehnquist's position was how unusual is it for a Chief Justice to come from outside the current court?

Turns out, not unusual at all (courtesy Wikipedia).  Apparently only 3 of the 16 Chief Justices that the United States has had to date were appointed from within the bench.  This of course includes Chief Justice Rehnquist himself, who was elevated to the top slot by President Reagan in 1986.  Contrast that to the fact that 9 of our 43 Presidents to date have ascended from the Vice Presidency to the Presidency.

The thing that stopped me in my tracks though was the number of Supreme Court Chief Justices that we've had in 229 years (16), compared with the number of Presidents (43).

This of course may partly due to the fact that our Presidents, since 1951, courtesy of the 22nd amendment, have been limited limited to serving two terms only, whereas Congress (both House and Senate), have no term limits, and Supreme Court Justices serve for life. 

The Executive branch is the only one with term limits compared to the other two branches.

I then decided to do some back of the envelope calculations. 

The average tenure of a President comes to 5.3 years vs. 14.3 years for a Chief Justice since the birth of the nation.  And that's with having NO TERM LIMITS on the Presidency for the first 175 years of the nation's history.

Until 1951, we'd had 33 Presidents, (Harry S. Truman being the 33rd), and 13 Chief Justices (Frederick Moore Vinson being the 13th).  It you take the averages up until that  point, they come out the roughly the same as after the Presidential term limits, 5.3 years for Presidents vs. 14.4 years for Chief Justices. 

That's a bit surprising, indicating perhaps that the effect of the term limits has yet to kick in.  Or maybe it's just tough for Presidents to get re-elected more than a couple of times given the national focus on this very important election every four years.  A bit tough to hide under that kind of scrutiny. 

After all, President Franklin D. Roosevelt was the only one who managed to get elected four times, but obviously under the extraordinary conditions of World War II.

Obviously as average life expectancies go up over the next few decades, the Chief Justices, indeed all Supreme Court Justices likely will serve even longer average terms.

Intuitively I'd have expected the average term of 14ish years to have been longer, but it is a long time by any measure.

Judge Roberts will likely go way past the average, assuming his confirmation, given that at 50, he'll be the second youngest Chief Justice after John Marshall, in 1801, who was appointed at the age of 45.

Watching a four year old interview of Chief Justice Rehnquist on C-Span recently, I remember his answer to a question on age and tenure.  Asked what if he thought if being appointed even an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court at 32 (Joseph Story in 1811), the youngest on record was too young, he said he did think it was...not because of the presumed relative inexperience of the candidate, but that potentially serving for decades in any capacity may be too much to ask of an individual.

I guess it's alright do something for a long time as long as your heart is truly in it...I had a two decade plus career with one firm, which is thought somewhat unusual on Wall Street, but I got to do things that I really enjoyed and believed in, with some terrific people.

Another long-standing institution that also has life-time terms is of course the Vatican Papacy.  According to Popechart.com, we've had 265 popes since the inception of the institution 2005 years ago...which gives us an average tenure of...7.5 years.

Now that's curious...that the average tenure of a Pope is about half that of a US Supreme Court Chief Justice, despite having almost a 10x advantage in time span, with the same life-time service opportunities.  Perhaps it has something to do with the much lower average life expectancies through the ages.

So, as the nation girds itself for a Fall full of legislators debating the pros and cons of Supreme Court appointments, we should remind ourselves that these individuals do have a unique responsibility, obligation and opportunity. 

To truly serve the WHOLE nation as it stands now and as it will be in the future, regardless of party affiliations, special interest pressures, and any implied obligations, presumed or real.  And to do it consistently well for a really long time.

Obviously, only after the appointment and confirmation circuses are done with of course.

Postscript:  By the by, President Bush getting the opportunity to appoint two judges to the Supreme Court so far is not unusual at all, when you consider each of his predecessors had the opportunity to do the same, although none a Chief Justice of course.  President Reagan got to appoint three.  (From Infoplease:  Reagan (O'Connor, Scalia, Kennedy); G.H.W. Bush (Souter, Thomas); Clinton (Ginsburg, Breyer)

Friday, September 02, 2005

ON TEN QUESTIONS REGARDING NEW ORLEANS

ASK AND YOU SHALL RECEIVE (NOT?)...

(Updates Below)

Fourth day after Hurricane Katrina passed through and it's hard not be affected by the personal stories of human suffering coming through the TV news.  It got so bad yesterday, that I turned off the TV to just focus on print reports of the news, so that I might get a broader perspective on what's happening.

It didn't help.  The print media was also for the most part focused on the personal anecdotes that make you shake your head that this is occurring within the United States.

And then another shock.  Regardless of political party affiliation, it was very surprising to hear President Bush refer to the situation as "unacceptable".  It's good to see the administration getting off the one key that has been the primary focus for modus operandi since 9/11.

And speaking of 9/11, one can't but help and compare & contrast (my favorite exercise in high school), the first few days of this disaster vs. the first few days of the last one, Rudi Guiliani notwithstanding (as Jason Calacanis wonders here).

Maybe whichever philospher who said it, got it right:  human beings do need an external enemy to motivate them to get off their duff. 

Which is why politicians throughout the ages have used that basic tool of governance.  And which is why they continue to invent external enemies when there are none, or exaggerate the ones that may exist in the far distance.

It's tough to make political hay out of mother nature as an enemy.

Here, there is no external enemy other than Hurricane Katrina, and of course the levees.  As an aside, the last time I thought of the word levee was whenever I heard Don McLean's "Bye, Bye American Pie" on the radio...remember?:

So bye-bye, miss American pie.
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.

Now, the whole nation is going to become expert on levees and how they work, and of course what happens when they don't.  Already there's talk in southern California of re-examining the levees in the area which are prone to earthquakes, which occur at a greater frequency and far less warning than hurricanes.

So, coming to the point of this post (finally), all this for me anyway, generated far more questions than answers. 

I thought I'd share them with everybody, and see if people have thoughts/comments on them, or if they have more questions they'd like to add.  These are in no particular order or priority.  For ones that I have some partial, half-baked answers and/or assumptions of answers, I've added them in parentheses:

1.  When will the people, especially around the Superdome, finally be evacuated?
    (A:  Probably in the next week, especially given the intense public, media and now political focus on the situation).

2.  When will the looting and lawlessness be brought under control?
    (A: Same as for the question above, especially with thousands of National Guards troops moving in...but important questions and issues around "Grand Theft Auto: The Big Easy" will remain.  Tom Evslin has some good thoughts on the crime spree here and comparisons to 9/11 here).

3.  When will the levee breaches be temporarily staunched?
    (A: In the next two weeks or so?)

4.  When will the city be totally evacuated?
    (A: Next 2-3 weeks, but with thousands of troops, volunteers and other organizations doing clean-up in the city, the issues of property protection remain...
RELATED QUESTION:  What are the legal precedents if any, around authorities going through hundreds of thousands of homes searching for bodies, WITHOUT the owners present?  Who's responsible if owners find things missing?  What if evidence of other crimes are found on the premises during these body searches?)

5.  When will we see all the bodies collected, identified and returned to families, along with a total death toll?)
    (A:  Likely 2-3 months, so by the end of the year?)

6.  When will the first memorial services be held for the victims, locally, regionally and nationally a la post 9/11?)
    (A:  This is a great opportunity for politicians go get airtime, so this will likely happen much sooner than later, possibly by the end of September?
RELATED QUESTION:  When will all the Senatorial and Presidential aspirants for 2006 and 2008 respectively start showing up regularly on TV for the next few months on Hurricane Katrina related issues?)

7.  When will the first looter and other related criminal trials be held?
    (A:  Again, given the political dividends, this will likely occur sooner than later, so likely in the next 3-6 months...nationally televised of course, with books to follow).

8.  When will see the first books, mini-series, movie of the week, and possible feature films based on these events?
    (A:  The writers are probably being engaged as we speak...so probably in 9-12 months?
RELATED QUESTION:  When will start seeing the first celebrity fund-a-thons and concert drives?)

9.  When does the "blame game" start, especially at the national level?
    (A:  Some would say it's already starting, but full-fledged Congressional hearings and the like are probably 2-3 months away...again, there's political capital to be accrued here
RELATED QUESTION:  When will see the first law-suits around the blame, crime and insurance issues?  The issues on the latter item are already murky given that about half of the home owners do not have flood insurance and the insurance industry is going to use that to limit coverage, as in "hurricane and winds are covered, but floods are not"...how do you delineate which damage is caused by which event?  Good day for lawyers coming, not to mention constructions folks from all around the country).

10.  When will policies be put in place so that something like this does not happen again, and we learn from history and our mistakes?
    Brothersgrimm(A:  You want fairy tales, go read a book).

I'm more of a natural optimist than a cynic, so even I'm surprised as to where I'm coming out on some of these answers...maybe I'll be positively surprised...to be continued...

UPDATES:

1.  September 3rd, Saturday, 1pm EST:   It's truly difficult to find the words to describe one's feelings as this story continues to unfold.  Both Fred Wilson and Brad Feld express their feelings in thoughtful ways...recommended. 

Also worth reading is Nick Bradbury's post, which emphasizes why this is so beyond regular party politics.

2.

Wednesday, August 31, 2005

ON KATRINA, JUXTAPOSED ADS AND BAD TASTE

NATURE SCORNED

(Update Below)

It's been a strange twenty-four hours for me.  I'm sitting here in Southern California with everything that modern technology has to offer.  State-of-the-art computers, wired and wireless broadband, multiple cable and satellite TV subscriptions, and of course, radio.

And yet, I've not been able to connect with my sister, her family, and my parents in Hattiesburg, Mississippi.  My last contact with them was a day and half ago, when they reported that the power just went out, as did cell phones, as the winds and rains stormed outside.

The roof of their house had started to leak in a number of places.  And after that, I guess the wireline phone went out as well, cutting off all contact.  I'd just told her to fill the bathtub with water in case the water system went out as well.  Which it apparently did later, judging from the scattered reports from local Hattiesburg media on the web. 

And I'm continuing to hit the re-dial button on the phone constantly every fifteen or so minutes, hoping to get through on one of the lines.

It's a stark reminder on how life can turn upside down in a flash.  And how the unexpected can occur even though logically we should have felt good when news came that Katrina had NOT spun through New Orleans. 

And of course we should have realized in hindsight, that 50-100 mile an hour winds can wreak havoc through power systems, both consumer and commercial, which then makes utterly inoperable our entire fabric of communications systems, wired, wireless, old media and new.

Besides reminding us how fragile our technologies of comfort and communication are times like these also show that when they do work, they can be used in bad taste.

I'm driving at 7:30 am Pacific time this morning on an errand, still trying to reach the folks, while listening to a radio news network on AM 760 out of San Diego. 

This news announcer is just wrapping on the news from New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, and then continues in a deadpan voice (and I'm paraphrasing here):

"But there is some good news in all this...if you own a motorcycle, like I do, you may have always envied folks who have had a Lojack system for their cars...well, now you can get Lojack for your motorcycle..."

And continues to prattle through his ad for the product...he probably thought he was doing a clever riff on the Geico commercials that have been running non-stop on TV in the same style for some time now.

Now I have nothing against advertising and a good sense of humor...but this struck me as being in bad taste...an extreme example of something Stephen Baker of BusinessWeek's Blogspotting talked about a day or so ago:

"I anxiously click on CNN.com to read about part of the roof ripping off the hurricane-batted Superdome. And I'm served up a video ad in which Cadillacs are rolling to waltz music. The message: "Cadillac StS. Let's Dance."

It feels like a jolt. At some point, I'm sure, the online news industry will figure out how to synchronize disaster coverage and advertisements. Clearly still a work in progress."

I know the media, both in television and radio have a tough job to do in times like these...reporting on terrible news non-stop throughout the day, many times in adverse conditions.  And most of them do a terrific job. 

But it's moments like the above that stand out in stark juxtaposition, demonstrating momentary flashes of bad taste in human nature, as mother nature does her thing.

In the meantime, at a time of dire need by so many, I'd urge you to consider helping out.  The Red Cross is but one of many avenues to contribute...click on the Red Cross link here, or in the sidebar ad on the top right.

To donate by phone:
1-800-HELP-NOW
(1-800-435-7669)       

To donate by mail:
American Red Cross
P.O. Box 37243
Washington, D.C. 20013

UPDATE:

Heard from my folks this Wednesday morning and they're all OK...driving north into Alabama. 

NealMy three and half year old nephew Neal thought it was all very exciting and wouldn't mind seeing the storm and its fury all again...ahhh, the innocence of childhood...

Thanks for all the kind wishes.

Monday, August 29, 2005

ON "GOOGLE PEAKING" AND APPLE ASCENDING

GOING FOR THE JUGULAR

I love riffing on "what-if" scenarios on technology and what technology companies could do to get ahead and hurt competitors, or just drive them a bit crazy.

One of the best "riffers" of "techno-strategy" "thought experiments", is veteran tech columnist Robert X. Cringely

He has an article up titled "Has Google Peaked?", in which he explores the scenario of Google having peaked in terms of its corporate contribution.  He posits:

"But what if everyone is mainly wrong?  What if search and PageRank and AdSense are Google's corporate apex.  Most companies would be content with that, but Google isn't supposed to be like most companies.  But what if they are?   I hear a lot of talk about Google doing deals for video and music distribution, but where are those deals?  So far it is all just talk.

I hope Google does pull off a couple more spectacular product feats, but I won't be all that surprised if they don't.  It will take the company another five years just to mature the businesses they already have.

So it could be that Google isn't the Microsoft-killer many people -- including Gates and Ballmer -- fear the company is.  Going a step further, it is even possible that Gates's conviction that he'll eventually be taken down by a startup is wrong, too."

He then goes on to explore another company that could be a bigger threat to Microsoft than Google.  I talked about this company a few days ago, as a possible future direct competitor to Google.  Robert goes on to say:

"Here's where I go out on a limb, but I think Microsoft's clearest threat still comes from Apple, though not the way most people expect. Yes, Apple is about to take Microsoft to the woodshed when it comes to Internet movie distribution.  Yes, Apple already super-dominates the music player market where Microsoft doesn't even really exist. But the real jewel is one Microsoft has to lose, not gain -- the PC platform, itself.

What could Apple do to take down Windows, with or without the help of Intel?

What seems to me to be the answer came to me this week from a reader who had a disruptive idea that I gleefully embellished."

What is this idea?  Well, Robert goes on to "gleefully" riff on a subject that has been the subject of several recent posts by yours truly.  You can see them here, here, and here.
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