*michael parekh on IT*

ON UNIQUE ARCHITECTURE IN BEIJING

BOXY PRETZEL

It's refreshing to see that not every major city in a fast, growing, developing country is racing to build the tallest skyscrapers around. 

There's a unique form of skyscraper going up in Beijing that will be re-defining how we think of skyscrapers.  This New Yorker piece by Architect critic Paul Goldberger explains:

"(Ole) Scheeren is the co-architect, with Rem Koolhaas, of the most eagerly awaited building in Beijing, the headquarters of the Chinese television network CCTV, a monumental construction that has become world-famous long in advance of its completion, scheduled for late this year.

A vast structure of steel and glass, it is a dazzling reinvention of the skyscraper, using size not to dominate but to embrace the viewer.

The building will contain more office space than any other building in China and nearly as much as the Pentagon, but, as skyscrapers go, it is on the short side, with just fifty-one floors.

Looking from a distance like a gigantic arch, it is a continuous loop, a kind of square doughnut."

Or a boxy pretzel...pick your snack food.

Mr. Goldberger goes on to say:

"When you get closer, you see that each horizontal section is made up of two pieces that converge in a right angle. The top section, thirteen stories deep, is dramatically cantilevered out over open space, five hundred and thirty feet in the air, and it seems to reach over you like a benign robot.

The novelty of the form—some Beijingers have taken to calling it Big Shorts—takes time to comprehend; the building seems to change as you pass it. “It comes across sometimes as big and sometimes as small, and from some angles it is strong and from others weak,” Scheeren said. “It no longer portrays a single image.”

This gentle giant of a structure, when finished, will have about 4.1 million square feet of office space, a little more than the Empire State Building (2.8 million sq. ft.) and Chrysler Building (1.2 million sq. ft.) combined.

They're racing to finish it in time for the Summer Olympics in Beijing, which kick off in less than 40 days.  It's definitely going up on my list "must visit" places, on the next trip to China.

ON GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS

DEMOGRAPHIC TECTONICS

As a long-time geek on demographic matters, this weekend's New York Times Magazine cover story on the falling birth rates in Europe caught my eye, especially with this bit:

"Around the time that President Kennedy went to Germany and gave his “Ich bin ein Berliner” speech, Europe represented 12.5 percent of the world’s population. Today it is 7.2 percent, and if current trends continue, by 2050 only 5 percent of the world will be European."

Demographics is Destiny as they say, and the devil is in the details, as they go on to say.  This article has a lot of both, including the implications of these European demographic trends for both Asia and the U.S. 

First, some detail:

"The figure of 2.1 is widely considered to be the “replacement rate” — the average number of births per woman that will maintain a country’s current population level. At various times in modern history — during war or famine — birthrates have fallen below the replacement rate, to “low” or “very low” levels. But Hans-Peter Kohler, José Antonio Ortega and Francesco Billari — the authors of the 2002 report — saw something new in the data.

For the first time on record, birthrates in southern and Eastern Europe had dropped below 1.3. For the demographers, this number had a special mathematical portent. At that rate, a country’s population would be cut in half in 45 years, creating a falling-off-a-cliff effect from which it would be nearly impossible to recover. Kohler and his colleagues invented an ominous new term for the phenomenon: “lowest-low fertility.”

The piece delves into the trends around Europe, and gets into possible reasons for the trends:

"As it turns out, the situation differs by region. “It’s a mistake to think of Europe as a single entity in this respect,” Alasdair Murray, director of CentreForum, a London-based research group, told me. “There are really four different population changes happening in Europe.”

The one that was the newest to me was the North-South divide:

"But the true fertility fault line in Europe — the fissures of which spread outward across the globe — runs between the north and the south. Setting aside the special case of countries in the east, the lowest rates in Europe — some of the lowest fertility rates in the world — are to be found in the seemingly family-friendly countries of Italy, Spain and Greece (all currently hover around 1.3).

I asked Francesco Billari of Bocconi University in Milan, an author of the 2002 study that introduced the “lowest low” concept, to account for this. “If we look at very recent data for developed countries, we see that Italy has two records that are maybe world records,” he said. “One, young people in Italy stay with their parents longer than maybe anywhere else. No. 2 is the percentage of children born after the parents turn 40. These factors are related, because if you have a late start, you tend not to have a second child, and especially not a third.”

What's particularly interesting in all this is the notion that what's happening in Europe could be potentially be the harbinger for trends around the world, as countries go from developing to developed:

"If this reading of southern European countries is correct — that their superficial commitment to modernity, to a 21st-century lifestyle, is fatally at odds with a view of the family structure that is rooted in the 19th century — it should apply in other parts of the world, should it not? Apparently it does.

This spring, the Japanese government released figures showing that the country’s under-14 population was the lowest since 1908. The head of Thailand’s department of health announced in May that his country’s birthrate now stands at 1.5, far below the replacement level. “The world record for lowest-low fertility right now is South Korea, at 1.1,” Francesco Billari told me. “Japan is just about as low. What we are seeing in Asia is a phenomenon of the 2000s, rather than the 1990s.

And it seems the reasons are the same as for southern Europe. All of these are societies still rooted in the tradition where the husband earned all the money. Things have changed, not only in Italy and Spain but also in Japan and Korea, but those societies have not yet adjusted. The relationships within households have not adjusted yet.” Western Europe, then, is not the isolated case that some make it out to be. It is simply the first region of the world to record extremely low birthrates."

The U.S. seems to be OK on these trends for now, partly because of our relatively unique openness (until recently), to immigration:

"WHICH BRINGS US TO A sparkling exception. Last year the fertility rate in the United States hit 2.1, the highest it has been since the 1960s and higher than almost anywhere in the developed world. Factor in immigration and you have a nation that is far more than holding its own in terms of population. In 1984 the U.S. Census Bureau projected that in the year 2050 the U.S. population would be 309 million. In 2008 it’s already 304 million, and the new projection for 2050 is 420 million."

There's a lot more nuance and detail in the piece, and it's a good starting point to understanding the demographic drivers that'll affect us all in the coming decades.  Recommended reading.

ON SUPREME COURT'S GUN RIGHTS RULING

JUDGMENT DAY

Like many Americans, I'm still trying to digest this week's Supreme Court decision defining owning guns as an individual, and not a group right.  Again, like many other critical decisions from the Court in recent days, this too was a close one, squeaking by with a 5-4 vote.  This contrast brought out between two of the important votes this week, in a "Letter to the Editor" to the New York Times, did catch my eye:

"It is sadly ironic that Justice Antonin Scalia wrote just this month, “It will almost certainly cause more Americans to be killed.”

Those words, excerpted from his vigorous dissent to the Supreme Court’s decision to affirm the right of habeas corpus to detainees at Guantánamo Bay, quite accurately predicts the outcome of this week’s ruling overturning the District of Columbia’s handgun ban, a ruling that Justice Scalia himself wrote.

Whether any Americans will be killed as a result of granting detainees the right to challenge their detention in a court of law is debatable at best. But whether more Americans will be killed as a result of a proliferation of handguns in Washington is a foregone conclusion.

Mark Abramowitz

Pittsburgh, June 27, 2008"

Food for thought indeed.

ON THE RECORD DRIVING

GOTCHA!

Given how the underlying technologies have all been going mainstream, it was only a matter of time before we saw a product like this, as Gizmodo explains:

"There are few things in this world that are more infuriating than getting into a car accident—but one of those things would definitely be getting into an accident where the blame is being disputed.

For the innocent party, a Roadscan Drive Recorder could be indispensable. The device mounts easily on your windshield or rearview mirror, and will continuously record graphical 3D-G accelerations data.

If you happen to get into an accident, it will save the digital video starting 14 seconds before the incident and 6 seconds after—so you would be armed with all of the data you need to dispute a ticket. Or totally incriminate yourself."

Double-edged sword is right, but could be worth it for most drivers at $299 per device.

ON INNOVATIONS IN MICRO-BLOGGING

A NEW TAKE

For all of the folks who're ardent users of "micro-blogging" services like Twitter, Pownce and others, there's a start-up that tries to do the same thing with a little bit of user interface innovation.  PC Magazine reviews this new service called Plurk, and has this to say:

"Imitation may be the sincerest form of flattery, but it can also be a darn good way to compete—especially when the imitator improves on the original. That's the approach taken by Plurk, a new microblogging rival to Twitter..."
"But while plenty of Twitter wannabees, such as Jaiku, dot the webscape, some offer little that's original beyond a slicker interface. Plurk's interface is certainly better, but the site also rethinks the genre somewhat and incorporates clever features.

   

		SLIDESHOW (7)
		Slideshow | All Shots

The site's primary innovation is the horizontal timeline it uses to display entries. That approach makes a lot of sense to me—it's a far more natural way to view sequential events than the vertical-scrolling method Twitter and its clones use."

The slideshow goes through some of the UI innovations, and they'll make more sense if you're already a user of these types of services.

The feature that strikes me as the most unique, is one which gives users credit, or "karma" for simply doing various things on the service:

"In the Plurk universe, your actions produce karma, but unlike its metaphysical counterpart, this one is quantifiable: Specifically, it ranges from starter (0 to 20) to Plurk Nirvana at from 81 to 100, and is recalculated every day. High karma brings a reward far beyond enlightenment, though: permission to use extra emoticons. Your karma level is based on your frequency of posting, the richness of your profile, and how many friends you invite."

It's kind of a frequent flier program for the online service, and an idea borrowed from world of computer and online games.  We'll see if it gains traction in the world of online social media.
I'm in the process of trying out the new service myself, and will see if the innovations make a material difference to using a service like this. 

Of course the critical factor driving the success of failure of a social service are the number of people using it.  And while Plurk offers ways to find Plurk members amongst your network of online friends on AIM, Yahoo!, MSN, Twitter and other services, there's obviously not that many folks who've started to use Plurk yet.  So it may be some time before "Plurking" becomes familiar, even amongst geeks.

ON VIDEO VIEWERS TO GO

PUBLIC PEEPS

Here's the latest and greatest way to watch video on the go with generally assured privacy.  Engadget reports:

"Surely you remember Veronica Belmont posing with the MyVu Crystal / Shades at CES earlier this year?

Yeah, the former unit is finally available to order for the three people in attendance who care, and better still, a recent review by PC World asserts that this thing actually isn't a half bad travel companion. Imagery was said to be "crystal-clear" (har) and battery life was more than reasonable, but look, even the reviewer admitted that he "wouldn't be caught walking down the street" with 'em on. Purchase accordingly.

• Read "

Not sure they've got it quite right, do you? At least in terms of wearing these things in public.

ON VISUAL VOICEMAIL FOR EVERYONE

FEED ME

Visual Voice mail, one of the flashier features of the original iPhone, is apparently coming to a Blackberry near you, as Boy Genius Reports:

"If you haven’t yet heard of Fusion Voicemail Plus by PhoneFusion, prepare to be impressed. In a nutshell, Fusion Voicemail Plus centralizes all of your voicemail boxes and presents your voicemail messages visually on your mobile handset.
Instead of receiving voicemails in separate boxes for your mobile number, home number, VoIP number, office number, etc everything goes to your PhoneFusion One voicemail box. The messages are then displayed visually on your handset a la iPhone. Each entry displays caller info and incoming number along with your number corresponding to the relevant phone service (so you know if the caller dialed your mobile number or home number for example). And did we mention that the service is completely free?"

All of this sounds good, but will have to see how it works in practice.  The last couple of years have seen a handful of startups provide voice mail transcription services.  I've been an avid user of Simulscribe, now known as PhoneTag, which is a subscription based voice-mail service, I'd still recommend.

The notion of having multiple voice mail boxes feed into a consolidated email feed though is appealing.  Will have to keep an eye on this new service by PhoneFusion.

ON SAYING GOODBYE TO GEORGE CARLIN

SAD STUFF

George Carlin passing away at 71 over the weekend is obviously big news for his fans worldwide.  Like millions, I've been a fan of his comedy for a very long time.

It was especially ironic since my wife and I spent part of the weekend spring cleaning around the house and there were several vigorous discussions around how much stuff had accumulated in the closets.  Of course there were debates about which bits of stuff should be kept and which should go.

It all brought to mind my favorite bit by George Carlin around STUFF.  Fortunately, I was able to find it on YouTube.  It's five minutes long, and if you haven't seen it, it's a treat.  Fair warning, George has always used "salty" language:

It's a great perspective on Stuff and the real meaning of life, and one that bears reminding ourselves constantly over time. 

And these days, we've got even more digital stuff to worry about that wasn't even on the radar when George raised the very important issues around stuff.

R.I.P. George, and thanks for all the great belly-laughs.

ON THE U.S. ARMY SPROUTING WINGS

HISTORY REPEATING

As a fan of aviation history, I'd long ago followed how the U.S. Air Force evolved out of a unit of the U.S. Army in the first half of the 20th century.  That's why this new development caught my eye in the New York Times:

"Ever since the Army lost its warplanes to a newly independent Air Force after World War II, soldiers have depended on the sister service for help from the sky, from bombing and strafing to transport and surveillance.      

But the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have frayed the relationship, with Army officers making increasingly vocal complaints that the Air Force is not pulling its weight..."

"But now in Iraq, the Army has quietly decided to try going it alone for the important surveillance mission, organizing an all-Army surveillance unit that represents a new move by the service toward self-sufficiency, and away from joint operations.

Senior aides to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates say that he has shown keen interest in the Army initiative — much to the frustration of embattled Air Force leaders — as a potential way to improve battlefield surveillance."

And they've built themselves an interesting, home-made aviation unit, as the piece goes on to explain:

"The battalion is called Task Force Odin — the name is that of the chief god of Norse mythology, but it also is an acronym for “observe, detect, identify and neutralize.” The task force of about 300 people and 25 aircraft is a Rube Goldberg collection of surveillance and communications and attack systems, a mash-up of manned and remotely piloted vehicles, commercial aircraft with high-tech infrared sensors strapped to the fuselage, along with attack helicopters and infantry.

The Army cobbled together small civilian aircraft, including the Beech C-12, and placed advanced reconnaissance sensors on board. Also assigned to the task force are small, medium and larger remotely piloted Army surveillance vehicles, including the Warrior and Shadow, with infrared cameras for night operations and full-motion video cameras.

All are linked by radio to Apache attack helicopters, with Hellfire missiles and 30-millimeter guns, and to infantry units in armored vehicles."

The whole piece is worth reading since it explores in detail the opposing philosophies that are driving this evolution within the Army:

"In contrast to Predators, which are assigned by the top headquarters for missions all across Iraq, Task Force Odin is on call for commanders at the level of brigade and below, an effort by the Army to be responsive to the needs of smaller combat units in direct contact with adversaries — and a clear sign of rivaling concepts with the Air Force..."

“Task Force Odin provides a current example in Iraq that reveals how reconnaissance, surveillance and target acquisition improves survivability,” General Cody said in a statement.

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, said Mr. Gates “wants to make sure that we are looking at not just top-down solutions, but ground-up solutions. We need to pay attention to anything that works.”

Based on how unmanned aviation technology seems poised to dramatically change how all Army operations work in the future, this baby step into more aviation seems to make sense.  At the same time, political rivalries within the armed forces is a fact of life and needs to be made as minimally corrosive as possible for the common good.  So some compromise here is likely needed between the Army and the Air Force.

I'm no expert on military organizations, but the Army seems to have long ago built a joint venture with the U.S. Navy with it's Marine Corps units.  So could this little aviation battalion evolve into a similar joint venture with the U.S. Air Force over time?

ON JUDGING BITS AND ATOMS

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

This Reuters article highlights how difficult it is being a shopper of analog goods in terms of trying to discern quality from where things are made:

"These days, many fashionistas are still confused over what is real, what is fake, and whether a product's country of origin says anything about its quality.

Even a "made in Italy" label no longer guarantees that a bag or a pair of shoes was hand crafted by artisans in a Tuscan workshop.

Instead, the bag could have been stitched together by illegal workers in clandestine Italian factories, and the shoes assembled from plastic soles and leather shipped in from China."

The piece goes on to describe how the perception of quality differs depending on not just where a product is made, but where a buyer is coming from:

"Asian shoppers are particularly origin-conscious as French and Italian luxury goods are important status symbols in the newly affluent region. And the opinions of Asian shoppers are beginning to matter more and more as growth in more mature markets slows down.

"In Asia, in a certain segment, you can't offer a product made in China or made in Asia," said Patrizio di Marco, president and chief executive of Bottega Veneta, on the sidelines of a luxury goods conference in Tokyo."

What's funny is how perceptions are blurring in the realm of digital goods as well.  The example that comes to mind are the area codes for phone numbers, be they old-fashion land-lines, cellular lines, or internet phone (VOIP) lines. 

In a world where almost everyone has a cell phone, and the geographical location of the phone no longer matters, the area code on the phone still does.

My 917 cell phone number from New York, which is my primary number, almost always causes a double take in stores and restaurants around the country.

It's one of the reasons why vendors of internet phone numbers like Vonage, Skype, Yahoo! et al, do a thriving business in offering the area codes of your choice.  With these numbers you can be "local" to all the people that matter to you whether it's business or personal.  You can be all things to all people, for a small fee per year.

My wife was extremely chuffed last year, when she won the area code lottery while activating her new iPhone with AT&T, and getting a 212 number for a CELL-PHONE.  I of course felt gypped a few minutes later by the same phone company with my prosaic 646 assignation for my new iPhone.

It's reminiscent of the famous Seinfeld episode, "The Maid", where the status of a New Yorker was, and is still judged by whether the seven digit phone number is preceded by a 212.

I guess geography does matter, regardless of whether it's bits or atoms.  And it will for some time to come, regardless of how much technology blurs our land lives.