ON THE FATE OF BOOMERS AND IMMIGRANTS
TIED AT THE HIP
Fascinating article in the Wall Street Journal, titled "Boomers' Good Life Tied to Better Life for Immigrants". It makes a point not very well understood by mainstream Americans on how the quality of life for them and/or their senior loved ones is intricately tied to the fate of immigrants going forward. Here's the introduction:
"The quality of life for some 80 million graying baby boomers in the U.S. may depend in large part on the fortunes of another high-profile demographic group: millions of mostly Hispanic immigrants and their children.
With a major part of the nation's population entering its retirement years and birth rates falling domestically, the shortfall in the work force will be filled by immigrants and their offspring, experts say. How that group fares economically in the years ahead could have a big impact on everything from the kind of medical services baby boomers receive to the prices they can get for their homes.
Immigrants and baby boomers are two groups whose destinies are converging in the next 20 years," says Dowell Myers, a demographer at the University of Southern California. "Baby boomers will surrender their economic role to this generation of immigrants and their children," who will evolve into a critical pool of laborers and taxpayers, he says."
The numbers are eye-opening to say the least:
"The U.S. is undergoing a seismic demographic change that will kick in over the next decade or so. In California, for example, there were 9.7 million baby boomers between the ages of 40 and 49 in 2005, who accounted for 51% of the prime working-age population. By 2020, they will be 55 to 74 years old, with most boomers on the brink of retirement or about to plunge into it.
The weight of this aging population will swell relative to the pool of working-age people. The ratio of senior citizens to prime-working-age people, 25 to 64 years old, will jump 30% in the decade between 2010 and 2020 and an additional 29% in the following decade, according to Prof. Myers.
All told, the ratio of seniors to working-age residents, including immigrants, will grow from 250 seniors per 1,000 working-age people in 2010 to 411 per 1,000 in 2030, he calculates."
It's interesting that this theme is nowhere to be found in the currently polarized debate on immigration, going into a major election year. Almost every candidate on either side is treating the immigration issue as primarily tied to national security.
As the WSJ articles puts it:
"But given the nation's polarizing debate over illegal immigration, the U.S. is unlikely to implement policies to attract many newcomers in the near future.
That suggests that one of the country's most pressing tasks may be improving the earnings prospects of its youngsters, especially Latino youth, who will have to carry much of the financial burden for the supersize boomer generation.
One of the challenges is that Americans don't seem to be aware of the vital role the next generation will play.
The predominantly white senior citizens and boomers, who account for the majority of the nation's decision makers, often vote against measures to boost services or raise taxes for schools increasingly populated by Hispanics.
That's a problem, because better education is the ticket to prosperity for those on whose tax dollars boomers will rely."
As I've tried to make clear in several prior posts, this issue is really about our long-term economic security as well, especially given the role that China and India are likely to play in the world economy in less than a generation.
The Journal article clarifies yet another critical facet to this issue, that really needs more mainstream understanding and discussion.
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