OUT OF THE BOX...
There's a day coming soon, when content providers are going to provide their content, especially video content, directly to consumers via rich, broadband connections. The existing distribution cable oligopolies are going to fight every inch of the way before this content is pried out of their boxes.
But there are too many competitors eventually, telcos, power companies, and various forms of wireless technologies, for this technology-driven tsunami to be mitigated. We may see other intermediaries emerge, in the form of today's portals like Yahoo!/Google/MSN/AOL etc., or entirely new entities to enable this content routing AROUND the cable box.
And we'll need easier ways for the broadband content, once in the house, to be viewed on any TV in the house. Inexpensive and easy-to-use technological solutions to this problem are likely to emerge in the near future.
But this "broadband content end-run" is happening...the only questions are when, and with what type of economic models?
In the meantime, most of the popular, mainstream content will likely stay behind the walled gardens of today's distribution networks. And consumers have to be content with nichier types of video content, both old and new.
The thing that got me thinking about all this was watching the Oscars.
The 77th Annual Oscars are done and are history...the ratings are in...they mildly disappointed according to the NYTimes, and "Rock, well didn't", according to Tom Shales of the Washington Post...people's curiosity about the various horse races and about who the best and worst dressed were has presumably been sated.
Harry Knowles, the founder of Ain't it Cool News, a long-popular site about movies had an interesting post about his key five things to remember for next year's Oscars. It's worth reading if you have even a passing interest in the Oscars. As an aside, if you have even a modest passion for the movies, I'd encourage bookmarking Harry's site for the movie reviews alone...he and his crew have created a unique site to discuss movies...in fact, his site was a core content blog, long before blogging was cool and called blogging. For instance, if you liked the movie The Incredibles at all last year, check out Harry's review of it...you get a a real sense of his passion and feel for the movies.
Anyhoo, although I think all five of Harry's points bearing keeping in mind, this post is about point number four on his list. For easy reference, he says (I've left his fonts intact):
4) Accompanying Clips & Burn Ins must be mandatory!
One of the most amazing things about the Short Film categories was the micro-look at them at the Oscars. Most people in the world will never ever see those short films. It's just a sad state of affairs. HOWEVER, at the Oscar broadcast. A clip from each nominee - with a clear label stating what it was and who did it. That makes sure that the initiated in the audience will track it down and understand to some degree what was just awarded. And beyond the shorts - doing this with every nominee. A glimpse of a well edited moment, a beautifully shot scene, fantastic make-up and special fx. The costumes, the art direction. Clips must accompany all or none... and my vote goes to all. Ultimately this night is about the work. That which we see. I can not begin to express how annoying this was last night. Also - keep those burn ins stating who & what just won up on the screen during the acceptance speech. This way if you happened to turn your head for a brief 2 seconds to look at a friend or a family member's reaction... you didn't just miss the actual name or affiliation of the person speaking on stage. Especially when it's multiple people.
He makes two points here, one about showing clips illustrating the best of the technical awards, i.e., the best edits, the best shot scene, the best make-up, etc. and the second about the short films, and I would include animation shorts, and the foreign films. I'm not sure given the time constraints of the Oscars that a better job could be done inserting those elements.
However, I do think this could be an excellent content category that could be distributed over the Internet, potentially through a Yahoo!, or one of the other major Internet portals (does that date me?) They could be offered either with Ad support, or on a subscription or pay per view basis.
Now the question is if there is a market for a short show illustrating the best technical effects? I don't know, but there could be. Historically, traditional media executives have under-estimated the intelligence of the mainstream audience, programming to the lowest common denominator to mitigate risk. However, in a world where five of the top ten TV shows on the networks are complex, geeky, police dramas, this could have already changed. Examples include Jerry Bruckheimer's CSI trio (CSI, CSI Miami and CSI NY), any one of the Law & Orders, NCIS, or even a new show like Numbers.,
It is possible that the best of Hollywood's technical achievements, shown with the production values of a Jerry Bruckheimer's CSI would be of interest to mainstream audiences. As an aside, look how far we have come on police procedurals...if you was watch a re-run a Columbo or McCloud, the top-rated crime dramas from the 70s, the investigating detectives would always refer to calling in the "Lab Boys" in passing. Who would think that these Lab Boys and Gals would be the stars of their own hit crime shows in the 21st century? Audiences have a greater appreciation and appetite for understanding complex, geeky things. Look, they already have to deal with digital cameras, music downloads, personal video recorders, complicated PCs, laptops, PDAs and cellphones, broadband routers, anti-spam, anti-virus software, wireless networking, WiFi, etc....anyway, I digress...
The other part of Harry's point dealt with the availability of clips from the leading shorts. I would extend it to the full short movies, animated shorts, and the best foreign movies. I thought it'd be easy to find these on DVDs on Amazon, Netflix, or other source on the Internet. You can get some of them, but not all as they rolled out on DVDs over the course of time.
I agree with Roger McNamee's point that video content is going to be increasingly consumed over broadband Internet connections despite a lot of technical hurdles today; and we're at a time when the traditional cable and network channels do not have the attendant time slots for these time of narrower-interest programming, potentially creating an opportunity for this kind of content to start with Internet distribution. As Roger notes in Part II of his piece,
Consumers have begun to demonstrate an enthusiasm for video that is delivered over the internet. Unfortunately, hardly anyone is selling quality video products that way, so consumers are getting used to the notion that internet video is free.
Unless of course, independent distribution companies like Apple, Yahoo! Google, MSN etc. could get millions of consumers to pay for video content over the Internet. Again, this could be done through a Yahoo! like portal, and/or downloaded via a Cinemanow type of download service, or distributed via special issued DVDs through Amazon or Netflix, or new startups like Brightcove or Olivelink. This is again just going down from the short end of the tail to the longer end.
Finally, there is the issue of "Foreign films". At a time when the rest of the world already accounts for a much greater amount of quality film and TV content, it seems increasingly short-sighted for Hollywood to restrict this content to single category ghettos. There is already increasing resentment of this overseas, especially for the limited number of slots by countries, and the politicized selection process. There is potentially higher than anticipated market for such content in the US.
The traditional marketing avenues for this content in the US continue to be relatively small "arts theaters" in the big cities and through DVDs. The latter channel has shown to be lucrative, especially to what are called "Global Tribes", i.e., large, global, expatriate communities of Indians, Chinese, etc. Again, the Internet could be an ideal distribution medium for such content, supported by either advertising/subscription or PPV models. This distribution network could also be supplemented by the community and communications capabilities of the Internet. Some of these categories of content may find a thriving market through the new distribution medium of a broadband Internet, but will likely require thinking out of the box.
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